On the final matchday of the League Two campaign, Walsall travel to Cherry Records Stadium, needing a massive win versus AFC Wimbledon and some favourable results to maintain their hopes of qualifying for the promotional playoffs.
The Dons' chances of making the playoffs fell by the wayside last weekend when they suffered a 3-2 defeat versus Tranmere Rovers, while the Saddlers' playoff hopes took a hit when Bradford City beat them by that same score, as they are currently three points back of seventh but with a goal difference of zero when compared to Barrow, who are at +6.
Match preview
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A strong second half by Wimbledon at Tranmere Rovers was ultimately too little too late as they suffered a third domestic defeat in their last four contests, losing each time by a single goal.
That means the Dons will be back in the fourth tier of English football for a third successive campaign in 2024-25, and they can finish no better than 10th in the table with a victory and bettering Gillingham's result against Doncaster Rovers this weekend.
Although their promotional aspirations will be on hold for at least another campaign, Johnnie Jackson has seen his side earn many more positive results domestically in 2023-24, as this side are currently on 62 points, 14 more than what they ended with a season ago.
Nearly half of their League Two defeats this season (nine of 20) were by just a single goal, and seven of those losses occurred when they were either ahead or on level terms at the interval.
Ultimately, Wimbledon will rue their share of missed opportunities at the beginning of the campaign, dropping 11 points this season when leading in the second half.
The Wombles are unbeaten in their last two league fixtures at Plough Lane, while suffering just one league defeat at home since the beginning of March (2-0 versus Newport County).
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Their playoff fate is no longer in their hands, but there is still a glimmer of hope for Walsall to keep their promotional aspirations alive.
To do that, Mat Sadler's men must do the unthinkable, win by at least five goals, hope that Barrow and Crawley Town all lose this weekend and that Bradford City fail to win.
Last Saturday, the Saddlers came flying out of the gate, up 2-0 before that match was 20 minutes old, but they failed to close the deal, as their hopes of promotion are hanging by a thread.
Throughout the 2023-24 campaign, Walsall have lost their composure in the latter stages of many matches, conceding in second-half stoppage time in four separate league fixtures, losing points on three of those occasions.
Win or lose this weekend, this team will have made some positive progress when compared to the previous campaign, reaching at least 60 points for the first time in five League Two campaigns, and currently boasting 10 more points (65) than a season ago.
They have lost two of their last three encounters versus Wimbledon in this competition and have not beaten them at Plough Lane since August 2018 (3-1) when both sides were in League One.
Team News
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Ryan McLean played only eight minutes for Wimbledon last Saturday before twisting his knee in his first start of the domestic campaign, while John-Joe O'Toole was sent off before the hour mark and will be suspended for this encounter.
Armani Little will be out for this match after injuring his ankle in the week leading up to their clash with Tranmere Rovers, and James Tilley was sidelined after suffering a knock in training last Friday.
Josh Kelly notched a second-half brace for the Wombles a week ago, his first two of the League Two campaign, but it was ultimately in vain.
Oisin McEntee trained last Thursday with Walsall but was omitted from the team sheet due to a knock, while Jack Earing sat out through injury and Jackson Smith was back between the sticks after previously being under concussion protocol.
Harry Williams will not return from his injury this season, while Brandon Comley was in the starting 11 for the first time since his expulsion versus Notts County earlier this month.
Modou Faal netted for the third match running last weekend, with Ryan Stirk getting his side off to the perfect start, striking in the seventh minute.
AFC Wimbledon possible starting lineup:
Tzanev; Balmer, Lewis, Johnson, Currie; Reeves, Williams, Pell; J. Gordon, Curtis; Kelly
Walsall possible starting lineup:
Smith; Okagbue, Daniels, Allen; Comley; Foulkes, L. Gordon, Hutchinson, Stirk; Faal, Matt
We say: AFC Wimbledon 2-1 Walsall
Wimbledon have nothing to lose heading into this encounter, which we believe will enable them to come out a lot more relaxed and get the better of a Walsall side that could be rather tense, given the uphill battle they have to make the playoffs and the fact that they have only earned one away triumph in this competition since the beginning of March.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
