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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 53.69%. A win for Walsall had a probability of 23.16% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.8%) and 2-0 (8.9%). The likeliest Walsall win was 0-1 (6.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.89%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.
Result | ||
AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Walsall |
53.69% ( -0.24) | 23.14% ( 0) | 23.16% ( 0.23) |
Both teams to score 55.73% ( 0.28) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.43% ( 0.23) | 44.57% ( -0.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.06% ( 0.22) | 66.94% ( -0.22) |
AFC Wimbledon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.45% ( -0) | 16.54% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.69% ( -0) | 46.31% ( 0) |
Walsall Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.77% ( 0.33) | 33.22% ( -0.33) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.17% ( 0.36) | 69.83% ( -0.37) |
Score Analysis |
AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Walsall |
1-0 @ 9.89% ( -0.1) 2-1 @ 9.8% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 8.9% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 5.88% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 5.34% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 3.24% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 2.64% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.4% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.46% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 0.95% ( -0) Other @ 3.2% Total : 53.69% | 1-1 @ 10.89% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.5% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 5.4% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.19% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.16% Total : 23.14% | 0-1 @ 6.06% ( -0) 1-2 @ 6% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 3.34% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 2.21% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 1.98% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.35% Total : 23.16% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 19 |
2 | Gillingham | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 19 |
3 | BarrowBarrow | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 19 |
4 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 19 |
5 | Notts County | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 18 |
6 | Port Vale | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 18 |
7 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 16 |
8 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 16 |
9 | Newport CountyNewport | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 15 |
10 | Grimsby Town | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 15 |
11 | Chesterfield | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 14 |
12 | AFC Wimbledon | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 13 |
13 | MK Dons | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 12 |
14 | Bradford CityBradford | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 12 |
15 | Salford City | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 12 |
16 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 11 |
17 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 11 |
18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 11 |
19 | Bromley | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 10 |
20 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 10 |
21 | Swindon TownSwindon | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 8 |
22 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 7 |
23 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 6 |
24 | Morecambe | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 4 |
> League Two Full Table |