With a spot in the Copa Libertadores quarter-finals on the line, Atletico Mineiro host San Lorenzo in the second leg of that last-16 tie on Tuesday at Arena MRV.
Mineiro came from behind in the opening leg to claim a 1-1 draw, extending their unbeaten run away from home to two matches across all competitions.
Match preview
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Despite conceding an opening half goal for the first time at the Libertadores this year, Atletico Mineiro were eventually rewarded for all of their pressure, levelling that match minutes before the hour mark.
Gabriel Milito will fancy his team's chances of advancing, winning their three group fixtures at home and going unbeaten in five successive matches across all competitions at Arena MRV.
Throughout the group stage, Atletico were a handful to contain in the attacking third at home, outscoring their three opponents by a combined margin of 9-3.
Mineiro have advanced from their last three round of 16 ties at this tournament when playing to a draw in their opening fixture, eliminating Emelec at this stage in 2022, 2-1 on aggregate, after claiming a 1-1 draw in leg one.
The last five times that this side netted multiple times, they have emerged with at least a point, defeating CRB in the Copa do Brasil 3-0 the last time out.
Galo have not lost a home fixture versus an Argentine opponent since suffering a 2-1 defeat to Boca Juniors in 1978 at their old venue, Estadio Raimundo Sampaio.
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As has been the case throughout the Libertadores thus far, San Lorenzo started strong in the opening leg but could not finish the job.
Five of their seven goals in this tournament have come in the opening 25 minutes of play, though last Tuesday was the second time they failed to win when scoring first.
Leandro Romagnoli's men have yet to win away from home in the Libertadores this year, failing to score as the visitors in their three group contests.
Not since matchday seven in the second phase of the Argentine Primera Division campaign have they won a competitive fixture away from home, defeating Gimnasia 1-0 in July.
El Ciclon have not won a second-leg encounter in this competition since defeating Club Nacional 1-0 in 2014 to lift the trophy for the first and only time in their history.
They have not won a Copa Libertadores knockout fixture versus Brazilian opposition since a 1-0 victory over Guarani in 1988.
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Team News
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Last week, Mineiro were missing Mauricio Lemos for the opening leg of this tie due to a muscle injury, Hulk sat out with a calf strain and Eduardo Vargas was sidelined because of a bruised knee.
A 58th-minute strike courtesy of Paulinho was enough for them to claim a draw in Buenos Aires, giving him six in the competition this year, even with Maximiliano Silvera of Penarol for second and three behind Junior Santos of Botafogo for the lead.
On Tuesday, San Lorenzo did not have Malcom Braida available with a sprained knee, while Manuel Insaurralde and Gaston Hernandez are dealing with cruciate ligament tears.
The third goal of the tournament for Alexis Cuello was ultimately not enough to see them earn a victory in the first match of this tie.
Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Everson; Saravia, Battaglia, Alonso; Scarpa, Franco, Vera, Arana; Paulinho, Zaracho; Deyverson
San Lorenzo possible starting lineup:
Altamirano; Arias, Lujan, Campi, Baez; Tripichio, Remedi, Irala; Leguizamon, Cuello, Barrios
We say: Atletico Mineiro 1-0 San Lorenzo (Atletico Mineiro advance 2-1 on aggregate)
Like the first leg, we anticipate another close encounter between these sides, but ultimately, we have more confidence in the overall quality of Mineiro than San Lorenzo.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
