Braga host Porto in a huge game at the top of the Primeira Liga table on Sunday evening, with just three points separating the sides.
The hosts will be hoping to go level on points with second-placed Porto with a victory in this game, while the away side will be looking to keep pace with league leaders Sporting Lisbon, currently sitting three points behind the side from the capital.
Match preview
© Reuters
Braga come into this game in a fairly rich vein of form, having won their last three league games, and their last four matches in all competitions.
That run has seen Carlos Carvalhal's side overtake Benfica, moving up to third in the top flight, in hot pursuit of the top two sides.
Most recently, Os Arcebispos secured a 2-1 home win against strugglers Portimonense, with second-half goals from Lucas Piazon and Ricardo Horta securing a third consecutive league victory after an early Aylton Boa Morte goal put the visitors ahead.
That result followed a 4-0 thrashing of eighth-placed Moreirense, thanks to goals from Fransergio, Andre Castro, Raul Silva and Horta.
As a result of their recent run, Carvalhal's men have moved onto 12 Primeira Liga wins this season from 17 matches, losing the other five games.
That may be their only slight worry, as no other side in the Primeira Liga's top six have lost as many as this, and Carvalhal will feel that his side can boost their chances of finishing in the top three if they can find a way to convert narrow losses into draws.
However, the Archbishops face one of their toughest challenges so far this season, hosting a Porto side who have not lost in the Primeira Liga since the beginning of November.
© Reuters
That form has seen Portugal's defending champions pick up 39 points out of a possible 51 so far this campaign, having won 12 of their 17 league games, while only losing twice.
As a result, they sit second in the division, three points behind leaders Sporting Lisbon, who have a game in hand on Porto.
However, they posted a disappointing result last time out, failing to break down 12th-placed Belenenses, with the game finishing goalless, despite a dominant performance from the Dragoes.
That was the first time Sergio Conceicao's side have failed to score in the league this season, having notched up 39 goals so far, a tally not matched by any other side in Portugal's top flight.
They will be desperate for a win in this tie, which would see them put the pressure back on Sporting at the top of the table, as the Dragoes look to lift their 30th Primeira Liga trophy at the end of the season.
Braga Primeira Liga form: LWLWWW
Braga form (all competitions): WLWWWW
Porto Primeira Liga form: WWDWWD
Porto form (all competitions): DLWWWD
Team News
© Reuters
Young winger Iuri Medeiros is expected to remain out for the Archbishops, having missed their last two matches with injury, and with the strong contingent of attacking players that Braga have available, they will not want to risk rushing the Nuremberg loanee back too soon.
Forward Rui Fonte and young defender Francisco Moura both remain on the sidelines for Os Arcebispos with long-term ligament injuries.
In the biggest Primeira Liga deal on deadline day, Braga lost forward Paulinho to Sporting Lisbon, while they received forward Andraz Sporar and full-back Cristian Borja on loan from the league leaders, with Sporar expected to lead the line once again after making his debut last time out.
He will be joined in attack by fellow January recruit Lucas Piazon, who scored his first Braga goal in the last match, following his arrival from Chelsea.
The hosts will also be boosted by the return of Fransergio, after the midfielder served a one-match suspension in the recent victory over Portimonense.
Meanwhile, Conceicao has several concerns to deal with, including the loss of midfielder Joao Mario after a positive COVID-19 test.
They could also be without exciting midfielder Otavio, who has missed the last two Porto matches with a muscle injury.
Striker Moussa Marega is likely to come back into the starting team in this game, after he was dropped to the bench in the 0-0 draw with Belenenses.
He should join the clinical Mehdi Taremi in attack, with the pair netting a combined 13 goals in the Primeira Liga so far this season.
Similarly, winger Jesus Corona should return to the starting lineup for this match, after he was also rested in the last game, with Conceicao expected to play a more usual full-strength team for this crucial game.
Braga possible starting lineup:
Matheus; Esgaio, Carmo, Rolando, Borja; Fransergio, Castro; Piazon, Horta, Galeno; Sporar
Porto possible starting lineup:
Marchesin; Nanu, Mbemba, Pepe, Manafa; Corona, Oliveira, Uribe, Diaz; Taremi, Marega
We say: Braga 1-2 Porto
With several key players returning to the starting Porto team, we can see the away side securing a narrow victory in this game, thanks to their slightly superior depth and quality.
Although Braga come into this game with some momentum, we think this could be the game which ends their winning run, and expect them to fall just short against the defending champions.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 39.77%. A win for Braga had a probability of 33% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.37%) and 0-2 (7.24%). The likeliest Braga win was 1-0 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.
