Napoli2 - 1AC Milan
We said: Napoli 2-1 AC Milan
There are potentially plenty of twists and turns in store at Stadio Maradona, as Milan and Napoli are both inside Serie A's top four for points gained from losing positions. The Rossoneri have fought back several times under Sergio Conceicao - including twice earlier this month - but overturning an Antonio Conte-led side may be beyond them. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 50.07%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 25.77% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 2-0 (8.44%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 0-1 (6.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Napoli in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Napoli.
| Result | ||
| Napoli | Draw | AC Milan |
50.07% ( 0.06) | 24.16% ( -0.03) | 25.77% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 55.24% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.44% ( 0.11) | 46.56% ( -0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.17% ( 0.11) | 68.83% ( -0.1) |
| Napoli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.36% ( 0.07) | 18.64% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 50.05% ( 0.11) | 49.95% ( -0.1) |
| AC Milan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.9% ( 0.04) | 32.1% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 31.42% ( 0.04) | 68.58% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Napoli | Draw | AC Milan |
| 1-0 @ 10.05% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.59% ( 0)2-0 @ 8.44% ( -0)3-1 @ 5.37% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 4.73% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.05% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.26% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.99% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.28% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.31% Total : 50.07% | 1-1 @ 11.42% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.98% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 5.45% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.16% ( 0)Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.16% | 0-1 @ 6.8% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 6.49% ( -0)0-2 @ 3.86% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.46% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.07% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.46% ( -0)Other @ 2.63% Total : 25.77% |
