Brasileiro | Gameweek 16
Jul 22, 2023 at 8pm UK
Allianz Parque
Palmeiras3 - 1Fortaleza
We said: Palmeiras 3-0 Fortaleza
Fortaleza have been on the receiving end of numerous lopsided results at Allianz Parque, and they are catching Palestra at a bad time once again. Unfortunately for the visitors, we believe they might suffer a similar fate this weekend against a Verdao team who rarely show mercy to the Ceara-based club when they come to town. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 69.53%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for Fortaleza had a probability of 11.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.06%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.05%), while for a Fortaleza win it was 0-1 (4.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Palmeiras | Draw | Fortaleza |
69.53% ( -0.13) | 19.16% ( 0.08) | 11.3% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 43.67% ( -0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
