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Bundesliga | Gameweek 25
Mar 19, 2023 at 4.30pm UK
BayArena
Bayern logo

B. Leverkusen
2 - 1
Bayern

Palacios (55' pen., 73' pen.)
Frimpong (39'), Hincapie (83')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Kimmich (22')
Pavard (43'), Stanisic (64'), Upamecano (73')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Ferencvaros 0-2 B. Leverkusen
Thursday, March 16 at 8pm in Europa League

Bayern Munich

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Bayern 5-3 Augsburg
Saturday, March 11 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Bayer Leverkusen 1-3 Bayern Munich

 This should be a hugely entertaining match between two teams containing plenty of attacking firepower. Bayern have only kept two clean sheets in nine league games since returning from the World Cup, so Leverkusen will certainly fancy their chances of scoring. However, the Bavarians could find themselves back down in second spot if Dortmund beat Koln as expected on Sunday, so they will be doubly determined to secure a victory and head into the international break at the Bundesliga's summit. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 55.1%. A win for Bayer Leverkusen had a probability of 23.6% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.54%) and 0-1 (7.38%). The likeliest Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 (6.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.

Result
Bayer LeverkusenDrawBayern Munich
23.6% (0.249 0.25) 21.3% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02) 55.1% (-0.228 -0.23)
Both teams to score 62.78% (0.401 0.4)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.47% (0.381 0.38)35.53% (-0.37799999999999 -0.38)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.42% (0.421 0.42)57.58% (-0.418 -0.42)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.13% (0.411 0.41)27.87% (-0.409 -0.41)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.52% (0.52 0.52)63.48% (-0.51799999999999 -0.52)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.04% (0.060000000000002 0.06)12.96% (-0.058999999999999 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.56% (0.119 0.12)39.44% (-0.117 -0.12)
Score Analysis
    Bayer Leverkusen 23.6%
    Bayern Munich 55.1%
    Draw 21.3%
Bayer LeverkusenDrawBayern Munich
2-1 @ 6.02% (0.037 0.04)
1-0 @ 4.62% (-0.035 -0.04)
2-0 @ 2.95% (0.012 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.62% (0.051 0.05)
3-1 @ 2.57% (0.045 0.04)
3-0 @ 1.26% (0.019 0.02)
Other @ 3.57%
Total : 23.6%
1-1 @ 9.43% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
2-2 @ 6.15% (0.050999999999999 0.05)
0-0 @ 3.61% (-0.069 -0.07)
3-3 @ 1.79% (0.039 0.04)
Other @ 0.32%
Total : 21.3%
1-2 @ 9.63% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)
0-2 @ 7.54% (-0.112 -0.11)
0-1 @ 7.38% (-0.125 -0.13)
1-3 @ 6.56% (-0.0059999999999993 -0.01)
0-3 @ 5.14% (-0.065 -0.06)
2-3 @ 4.19% (0.044 0.04)
1-4 @ 3.35% (0.004 0)
0-4 @ 2.62% (-0.027 -0.03)
2-4 @ 2.14% (0.027 0.03)
1-5 @ 1.37% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
0-5 @ 1.07% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
3-4 @ 0.91% (0.022 0.02)
Other @ 3.18%
Total : 55.1%

How you voted: B. Leverkusen vs Bayern

Bayer Leverkusen
14.3%
Draw
8.3%
Bayern Munich
77.4%
84
Head to Head
Sep 30, 2022 7.30pm
Bayern
4-0
B. Leverkusen
Sane (3'), Musiala (17'), Mane (39'), Muller (84')
Mar 5, 2022 2.30pm
Bayern
1-1
B. Leverkusen
Sule (18')
Coman (72')
Muller (36' og.)
Bakker (32'), Demirbay (54')
Oct 17, 2021 2.30pm
B. Leverkusen
1-5
Bayern
Schick (55')
Lewandowski (4', 30'), Muller (34'), Gnabry (35', 37')
Apr 20, 2021 7.30pm
Bayern
2-0
B. Leverkusen
Maxim Choupo-Moting (7'), Kimmich (13')
Dec 19, 2020 5.30pm
B. Leverkusen
1-2
Bayern
Schick (14')
Bailey (72')
Lewandowski (43', 90+3')
Gnabry (24')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern14103142123033
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1485132201229
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1483334201427
4RB Leipzig148332315827
5Freiburg147342019124
6Stuttgart146532924523
7Mainz 05Mainz146442519622
8Borussia DortmundDortmund146442521422
9Werder Bremen146442224-222
10Wolfsburg146353125621
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach146352319421
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin144551315-217
13Augsburg144461627-1116
14Hoffenheim143561926-714
15St Pauli143291119-811
16Heidenheim1431101831-1310
17Holstein Kiel1412111437-235
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1403111135-243
> Bundesliga Full Table


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