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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 81.33%. A draw had a probability of 12.1% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 6.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.72%) and 2-1 (8.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.62%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 1-2 (2.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
Result | ||
Bayern Munich | Draw | Union Berlin |
81.33% ( 0.03) | 12.07% ( -0.02) | 6.6% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 49.17% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
70.33% ( 0.03) | 29.66% ( -0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
49.21% ( 0.03) | 50.78% ( -0.03) |
Bayern Munich Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
94.49% ( 0.01) | 5.5% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
78.54% ( 0.03) | 21.46% ( -0.03) |
Union Berlin Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
52.04% ( -0.02) | 47.96% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
16.79% ( -0.01) | 83.2% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Bayern Munich | Draw | Union Berlin |
2-0 @ 11.09% 3-0 @ 10.72% 2-1 @ 8.15% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 7.88% 4-0 @ 7.78% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.65% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 5.71% ( 0) 5-0 @ 4.51% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 3.31% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.9% ( -0) 6-0 @ 2.18% ( 0) 4-2 @ 2.1% 6-1 @ 1.6% ( 0) 5-2 @ 1.22% ( 0) 7-0 @ 0.9% ( 0) Other @ 3.6% Total : 81.31% | 1-1 @ 5.62% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 3% ( -0) 0-0 @ 2.64% ( -0) Other @ 0.81% Total : 12.07% | 1-2 @ 2.07% ( -0) 0-1 @ 1.94% ( -0) Other @ 2.6% Total : 6.6% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 42 | 12 | 30 | 33 |
2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 29 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 20 | 14 | 27 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
5 | Freiburg | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 24 |
6 | Stuttgart | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 23 |
7 | Mainz 05Mainz | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 22 |
8 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 22 |
9 | Werder Bremen | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 22 |
10 | Wolfsburg | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 25 | 6 | 21 |
11 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 21 |
12 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 17 |
13 | Augsburg | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 16 |
14 | Hoffenheim | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 14 |
15 | St Pauli | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 11 |
16 | Heidenheim | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 10 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 37 | -23 | 5 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 14 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 35 | -24 | 3 |
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