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Bundesliga | Gameweek 11
Nov 12, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
BayArena
Union Berlin logo

B. Leverkusen
4 - 0
Union Berlin

Grimaldo (23'), Odilon (57'), Tah (73'), Tella (83')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Ronnow (74')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Qarabag 0-1 B. Leverkusen
Thursday, November 9 at 5.45pm in Europa League

Union Berlin

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Napoli 1-1 Union Berlin
Wednesday, November 8 at 5.45pm in Champions League

We said: Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 Union Berlin

 In terms of form, this could be the biggest mismatch in European football this weekend, but that does not paint the full picture. Union Berlin are a much better team than they have shown so far this season, and their confidence will have been boosted by drawing away to Serie A champions Napoli in midweek. However, Leverkusen are a serious attacking force at present and have more strings to their bow in terms of breaking their opponents down. While we can envisage the visitors making Leverkusen work hard for their victory, especially having travelled back from Azerbaijan less than 72 hours prior to this fixture, they should have enough to get over the line in the end and remain at the top of the table. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 69.03%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 13.29%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 1-0 (8.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.18%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 1-2 (3.83%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
Bayer LeverkusenDrawUnion Berlin
69.03% (-0.28399999999999 -0.28) 17.68% (0.092000000000002 0.09) 13.29% (0.195 0.19)
Both teams to score 55.1% (0.25 0.25)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.02% (0.041000000000004 0.04)35.98% (-0.038000000000004 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.92% (0.043999999999997 0.04)58.08% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.56% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)9.44% (0.0571 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
68.29% (-0.131 -0.13)31.71% (0.134 0.13)
Union Berlin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.84% (0.314 0.31)39.16% (-0.311 -0.31)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.13% (0.292 0.29)75.87% (-0.289 -0.29)
Score Analysis
    Bayer Leverkusen 69.02%
    Union Berlin 13.29%
    Draw 17.68%
Bayer LeverkusenDrawUnion Berlin
2-0 @ 10.29% (-0.07 -0.07)
2-1 @ 9.65% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
1-0 @ 8.72% (-0.038 -0.04)
3-0 @ 8.1% (-0.077999999999999 -0.08)
3-1 @ 7.6% (-0.008 -0.01)
4-0 @ 4.78% (-0.058000000000001 -0.06)
4-1 @ 4.48% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-2 @ 3.56% (0.026 0.03)
5-0 @ 2.26% (-0.033 -0.03)
5-1 @ 2.12% (-0.013 -0.01)
4-2 @ 2.1% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
5-2 @ 0.99% (0.002 0)
Other @ 4.37%
Total : 69.02%
1-1 @ 8.18% (0.032 0.03)
2-2 @ 4.53% (0.045 0.04)
0-0 @ 3.7% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.11% (0.018 0.02)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 17.68%
1-2 @ 3.83% (0.048 0.05)
0-1 @ 3.47% (0.023 0.02)
0-2 @ 1.62% (0.024 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.41% (0.026 0.03)
1-3 @ 1.2% (0.025 0.02)
Other @ 1.76%
Total : 13.29%

How you voted: B. Leverkusen vs Union Berlin

Bayer Leverkusen
81.8%
Draw
12.7%
Union Berlin
5.5%
55
Head to Head
Apr 29, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 30
Union Berlin
0-0
B. Leverkusen
> Preview
Nov 6, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 13
B. Leverkusen
5-0
Union Berlin
Andrich (46'), Diaby (56', 58'), Hlozek (68'), Bakker (76')
> Preview
Jan 8, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 18
B. Leverkusen
2-2
Union Berlin
Schick (38'), Tah (84')
Tah (59')
Promel (45', 50')
Trimmel (31'), Friedrich (85')
> Preview
Aug 14, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 1
Union Berlin
1-1
B. Leverkusen
Awoniyi (7')
Diaby (12')
Diaby (28')
> Preview
May 15, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 33
B. Leverkusen
1-1
Union Berlin
Wirtz (27')
Amiri (6'), Tapsoba (17')
Pohjanpalo (72')
Ingvartsen (40'), Andrich (55')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern14103142123033
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1485132201229
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1483334201427
4RB Leipzig148332315827
5Freiburg147342019124
6Stuttgart146532924523
7Mainz 05Mainz146442519622
8Borussia DortmundDortmund146442521422
9Werder Bremen146442224-222
10Wolfsburg146353125621
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach146352319421
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin144551315-217
13Augsburg144461627-1116
14Hoffenheim143561926-714
15St Pauli143291119-811
16Heidenheim1431101831-1310
17Holstein Kiel1412111437-235
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1403111135-243
> Bundesliga Full Table


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