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Bundesliga | Gameweek 9
Oct 8, 2022 at 5.30pm UK
Signal Iduna Park
Bayern logo

Dortmund
2 - 2
Bayern

Moukoko (74'), Modeste (90+5')
Bellingham (14'), Can (40'), Adeyemi (90+2')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Goretzka (33'), Sane (53')
Sabitzer (2'), de Ligt (11'), Goretzka (57'), Coman (77'), Sane (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Sevilla 1-4 Dortmund
Wednesday, October 5 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Bayern 5-0 Plzen
Tuesday, October 4 at 5.45pm in Champions League

We said: Borussia Dortmund 1-3 Bayern Munich

We expect to see an entertaining Der Klassiker on Saturday, with both teams possessing plenty of attacking firepower. However, Bayern have looked somewhere close to returning to their best in the past week - scoring nine goals in two matches combined - and should have too much quality for their rivals. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 55.89%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 24.18% and a draw had a probability of 19.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.84%) and 0-2 (6.2%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 (5.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawBayern Munich
24.18% (0.023 0.02) 19.93% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01) 55.89% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)
Both teams to score 68.78% (0.057999999999993 0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
71.91% (0.064999999999998 0.06)28.09% (-0.061 -0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
51.15% (0.078000000000003 0.08)48.85% (-0.073 -0.07)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.7% (0.052999999999997 0.05)23.3% (-0.048999999999999 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.76% (0.073 0.07)57.24% (-0.069000000000003 -0.07)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.67% (0.02000000000001 0.02)10.33% (-0.016 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.22% (0.037999999999997 0.04)33.78% (-0.035000000000004 -0.04)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 24.18%
    Bayern Munich 55.89%
    Draw 19.93%
Borussia DortmundDrawBayern Munich
2-1 @ 5.8%
1-0 @ 3.51% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.2% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
3-1 @ 2.82% (0.004 0)
2-0 @ 2.55% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
3-0 @ 1.24% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-2 @ 1.16% (0.004 0)
4-1 @ 1.03% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 2.88%
Total : 24.18%
1-1 @ 7.96% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-2 @ 6.58% (0.0040000000000004 0)
3-3 @ 2.42% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-0 @ 2.41% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 0.57%
Total : 19.93%
1-2 @ 9.03% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
1-3 @ 6.84% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-2 @ 6.2% (-0.014 -0.01)
0-1 @ 5.46% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-3 @ 4.98% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
0-3 @ 4.69% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
1-4 @ 3.88% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-4 @ 2.83% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-4 @ 2.66% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-5 @ 1.76% (0.002 0)
3-4 @ 1.37% (0.0049999999999999 0)
2-5 @ 1.28% (0.0029999999999999 0)
0-5 @ 1.21% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 3.68%
Total : 55.89%

How you voted: Dortmund vs Bayern

Borussia Dortmund
18.1%
Draw
8.8%
Bayern Munich
73.1%
160
Head to Head
Apr 23, 2022 5.30pm
Bayern
3-1
Dortmund
Gnabry (15'), Lewandowski (34'), Musiala (83')
Nagelsmann (87')
Can (52' pen.)
Can (40'), Rose (41')
Dec 4, 2021 5.30pm
Dortmund
2-3
Bayern
Brandt (5'), Braut Haaland (48')
Can (51'), Rose (55'), Rose (78'), Bellingham (86')
Lewandowski (9', 77'), Coman (44')
Lewandowski (88'), Upamecano (90+5')
Aug 17, 2021 7.30pm
Dortmund
1-3
Bayern
Reus (64')
Reus (25'), Dahoud (32')
Lewandowski (41', 74'), Muller (50')
Sule (23'), Sane (83'), Maxim Choupo-Moting (90+3')
Mar 6, 2021 5.30pm
Bayern
4-2
Dortmund
Lewandowski (26', 44' pen., 90'), Goretzka (88')
Lewandowski (28')
Braut Haaland (2', 9')
Meunier (29')
Nov 7, 2020 5.30pm
Dortmund
2-3
Bayern
Reus (45'), Braut Haaland (83')
Delaney (45+3'), Witsel (90+1')
Alaba (45+4'), Lewandowski (48'), Sane (80')
Kimmich (36'), Lewandowski (82')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern54101741313
2Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt5401116512
3RB Leipzig532082611
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen53111410410
5Borussia DortmundDortmund5311119210
6Heidenheim530210739
7Freiburg53028719
8Stuttgart5221141048
9Union BerlinUnion Berlin52214318
10Werder Bremen5221811-38
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach520368-26
12Mainz 05Mainz5122810-25
13Wolfsburg51131011-14
14St Pauli511346-24
15Augsburg5113714-74
16Hoffenheim5104915-63
17VfL BochumVfL Bochum5014511-61
18Holstein Kiel5014717-101


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