Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 18

Jan 8, 2022 at 2.30pm UK

Red Bull Arena

RB Leipzig
4 - 1
Mainz 05

Silva (21' pen., 61'), Szoboszlai (47'), Nkunku (58')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Jae-sung (57')
Jae-sung (16'), Bell (59')
Hack (19')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between RB Leipzig and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We said: RB Leipzig 2-1 Mainz 05

Mainz have been extremely impressive this season and have proved to be a difficult opponent for whoever they have faced, so this will be no different on Saturday. However, with Leipzig having home advantage, as well as the visitors having two key defenders missing, we are predicting a narrow home win in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 61.83%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 17.56%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.93%) and 1-0 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.65%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (4.83%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.

Result
RB Leipzig	Draw	Mainz 05
61.83%	20.6%	17.56%

Both teams to score 55.24%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.11%

40.89%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.72%

63.28%

RB Leipzig Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.29%

12.71%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

61.07%

38.93%

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.28%

36.72%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.49%

73.5%

Score Analysis

RB Leipzig 61.83%

Mainz 05 17.56%

Draw 20.6%

RB Leipzig	Draw	Mainz 05
2-1 @ 9.95% 2-0 @ 9.93% 1-0 @ 9.63% 3-1 @ 6.84% 3-0 @ 6.83% 4-1 @ 3.53% 4-0 @ 3.52% 3-2 @ 3.43% 4-2 @ 1.77% 5-1 @ 1.46% 5-0 @ 1.45% Other @ 3.51% Total : 61.83%	1-1 @ 9.65% 2-2 @ 4.98% 0-0 @ 4.67% 3-3 @ 1.15% Other @ 0.16% Total : 20.6%	1-2 @ 4.83% 0-1 @ 4.68% 0-2 @ 2.34% 2-3 @ 1.66% 1-3 @ 1.61% Other @ 2.44% Total : 17.56%