Despite struggling to pick up wins and score goals this season, Mainz have been defensively secure since Siewert took over in November, only conceding eight goals in his 11 league games in charge.
However, they will face the third highest goalscorers in the Bundesliga when they take on Stuttgart on Sunday, and we are struggling to envisage a scenario in which that run of conceding no more than one goal in a game under Siewert does not come to an end for the visitors.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 56.4%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 21.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.43%) and 2-0 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.34%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (5.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stuttgart would win this match.
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0.12) 
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