Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 1

Aug 6, 2022 at 2.30pm UK

Stadion An der Alten Försterei

Union Berlin
3 - 1
Hertha Berlin

Siebatcheu (32'), Becker (50'), Knoche (54')
Knoche (35'), Leweling (90+3')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Lukebakio (85')
Uremovic (52'), Sunjic (77'), Lukebakio (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Union Berlin and Hertha Berlin, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Union Berlin

Last Six:

Last Game: Chemnitzer 1-2 Union Berlin
Monday, August 1 at 5.01pm in DFB-Pokal

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
13	Stuttgart	0	0	0
14	Union Berlin	0	0	0
15	VfL Bochum	0	0	0

Hertha Berlin

Last Six:

Last Game: Braunschweig 4-4 Hertha Berlin (6-5 pen.)
Sunday, July 31 at 5.01pm in DFB-Pokal

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
7	Freiburg	0	0	0
8	Hertha Berlin	0	0	0
9	Hoffenheim	0	0	0

We said: Union Berlin 2-1 Hertha Berlin

Hertha could hardly have asked for a tougher test in Schwarz's first Bundesliga game in charge, and we expect the more settled hosts to secure a derby victory. The visitors looked wide open against a team one division below them in their cup defeat last weekend, with Union Berlin perfectly poised to hurt them in transition. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 49.16%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Hertha Berlin had a probability of 24.35%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.64%) and 2-1 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.44%), while for a Hertha Berlin win it was 0-1 (8.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.

Result
Union Berlin	Draw	Hertha Berlin
49.16% ( -0.1)	26.48% ( 0.02)	24.35% ( 0.08)

Both teams to score 46.9% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.15% (

-0.03)

56.85% (

0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.22% (

-0.02)

77.78% (

0.02)

Union Berlin Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.8% (

-0.06)

23.19% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.91% (

-0.08)

57.09% (

0.08)

Hertha Berlin Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.06% (

0.06)

38.93% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.34% (

0.05)

75.66% (

-0.06)

Score Analysis

Union Berlin 49.16%

Hertha Berlin 24.35%

Draw 26.48%

Union Berlin	Draw	Hertha Berlin
1-0 @ 13.19% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.64% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.1% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.7% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 4.43% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.09% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.72% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.62% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.68% Total : 49.16%	1-1 @ 12.44% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.03% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.29% ( 0) Other @ 0.72% Total : 26.48%	0-1 @ 8.52% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 5.87% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 4.02% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.85% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.35% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.26% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.49% Total : 24.35%