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Burnley logo
Premier League | Gameweek 38
Jul 26, 2020 at 4pm UK
Turf Moor
Brighton logo

Burnley
1 - 2
Brighton

Wood (44')
Brownhill (5'), Bardsley (85'), Pieters (90+4')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Bissouma (20'), Connolly (50')

Preview: Burnley vs. Brighton & Hove Albion - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Premier League clash between Burnley and Brighton & Hove Albion, including team news and predicted lineups.

Burnley will be looking to break their Premier League record points tally when they host lowly Brighton & Hove Albion on the final day of the season.

The Clarets need a point to make this their best-ever campaign in the competition, while Brighton are playing for pride alone after securing their top-flight status earlier this week.


Match preview

Burnley players celebrate Jay Rodriguez's equalising goal against Liverpool on July 11, 2020© Reuters

Burnley's 2-0 win over already-relegated Norwich City last weekend made it seven games without defeat in the league, a run that only Manchester United can better.

Sean Dyche, an outside contender to win the Manager of the Year award, described the win at Carrow Road as "bizarre" after Norwich had two players sent off before half time.

An acrobatic effort from Chris Wood and an own goal from Ben Godfrey secured a fourth victory in eight matches since the restart as Burnley moved into ninth.

The Clarets can no longer finish in a European spot, but they have something tangible to aim for this weekend as one point is needed to better their 2017-18 points tally.

Indeed, they have already won more Premier League games this season than they have in any of their other campaigns in the competition, picking up maximum points 15 times.

Burnley's superb run, which has seen them lose only one of their last 15 games going further back, has been built on an impressive defensive record.

Brighton & Hove Albion's Leandro Trossard celebrates scoring against Norwich on July 4, 2020© Reuters

In those 15 games they have conceded 11 times, five of those coming in the solitary defeat at the hands of Manchester City, and Nick Pope is level with Ederson on 15 clean sheets in the race to win the Golden Glove.

There is far less for Brighton to play for on the face it, having sealed their place in the Premier League for a fourth season with Monday's goalless draw against Newcastle United.

Graham Potter was brought in to improve Brighton's style of play and has achieved that, but supporters will be expecting more next season following another close call this term.

The Seagulls have been far too inconsistent all season - especially post-lockdown, with a return of two wins, three defeats and three losses in eight matches.

Potter will now be keen to end his first season as a Premier League manager on a high by coming away from Turf Moor with victory, something six teams have managed in 2019-20.

However, Brighton have won just one of their last eight away league meetings with Burnley, and have lost all three final-day games since earning promotion to the Premier League.

Burnley's Premier League form: WDWDDW

Brighton's Premier League form: LWLLDD


Team News

Chris Wood celebrates scoring for Burnley on December 14, 2019© Reuters

Jack Cork, Ashley Barnes, Ben Gibson, Ben Mee and Matthew Lowton all remain absent for Burnley, while Charlie Taylor is doubtful.

Erik Pieters is expected to continue filling in at left-back for what could be an unchanged Burnley XI, with that perhaps depending on Johan Berg Gudmundsson's fitness.

After scoring last weekend, Wood now has 13 Premier League goals to his name this season - the most by a Burnley player in a single top-flight campaign since 1975-76.

As for the visitors, Jose Izquierdo and Steven Alzate are Potter's only confirmed absentees and there is a question mark over Alireza Jahanbakhsh's availability.

Adam Webster recovered from a knock to retain his place alongside Lewis Dunk in the heart of defence last time out, which should remain the case here.

Interestingly, striker Neal Maupay is the highest Premier League goalscorer this season among players who have not scored more than once in a match (10).

Burnley possible starting lineup:
Pope; Bardsley, Long, Tarkowski, Pieters; Gudmundsson, Westwood, Brownhill, McNeil; Rodriguez, Wood

Brighton possible starting lineup:
Ryan; Lamptey, Webster, Dunk, Burn; Bissouma, Stephens, Propper; Mooy, Trossard; Maupay


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Burnley 1-1 Brighton

No team has drawn more matches than Brighton (14) this season, while four of Burnley's last five games have finished 1-1. Furthermore, six of the last eight league meetings between these sides have finished level, so we can only see this game ending one way.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brighton & Hove Albion win with a probability of 38.89%. A win for Burnley had a probability of 34.66% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brighton & Hove Albion win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.41%) and 0-2 (6.75%). The likeliest Burnley win was 1-0 (9.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brighton & Hove Albion would win this match.


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TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sunderland1695226121432
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd1610422191232
3Burnley168621961330
4Leeds UnitedLeeds158522491529
5Middlesbrough1683529191027
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom166821811726
7Watford168262524126
8Millwall166641914524
9Blackburn RoversBlackburn156451917222
10Bristol City165742020022
11Derby CountyDerby165562020020
12Stoke CityStoke165561920-120
13Norwich CityNorwich164752524119
14Swansea CitySwansea155461110119
15Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds165471826-819
16Luton TownLuton165381826-818
17Coventry CityCoventry164572223-117
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