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Champions League
PSV
Champions League | Third Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Aug 8, 2023 at 7.30pm UK
Philips Stadion

PSV
4 - 1
Sturm Graz

Babadi (4'), de Jong (22', 32'), Sangare (73')
FT(HT: 3-1)
Gorenc Stankovic (40')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between PSV Eindhoven and Sturm Graz, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

PSV Eindhoven

All competitions
Last Game: Feyenoord 0-1 PSV
Friday, August 4 at 7pm in Dutch Super Cup

Sturm Graz

All competitions
Last Game: Sturm Graz 2-0 LASK
Saturday, August 5 at 6.30pm in Austrian Bundesliga

We said: PSV Eindhoven 2-0 Sturm Graz

 Even with a noticeably thin squad and a couple of defensive absentees, a PSV side on cloud nine from their Super Cup triumph should still make light work of Sturm Graz on their own turf, as was the case in the Europa League two seasons ago. It remains to be seen how the Simons-less Lightbulbs will fare under Bosz in the long run, and they will not score for fun on Tuesday, but the visitors' youthful crop surely lack the necessary continental experience to trouble the hosts' backline. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 54.74%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 25.16% and a draw had a probability of 20.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.72%) and 2-0 (6%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 1-2 (5.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.

Result
PSV EindhovenDrawSturm Graz
54.74% (-0.063000000000002 -0.06) 20.1% (0.0060000000000002 0.01) 25.16% (0.057000000000002 0.06)
Both teams to score 69.32% (0.041999999999987 0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
72.14% (0.027000000000001 0.03)27.85% (-0.029 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
51.44% (0.034999999999997 0.03)48.56% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)
PSV Eindhoven Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.45% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)10.54% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
65.73% (-0.015999999999991 -0.02)34.26% (0.014000000000003 0.01)
Sturm Graz Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.49% (0.051000000000002 0.05)22.5% (-0.053000000000001 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.93% (0.079000000000001 0.08)56.06% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)
Score Analysis
    PSV Eindhoven 54.74%
    Sturm Graz 25.16%
    Draw 20.1%
PSV EindhovenDrawSturm Graz
2-1 @ 8.96% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-1 @ 6.72% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
2-0 @ 6% (-0.014 -0.01)
1-0 @ 5.34% (-0.010000000000001 -0.01)
3-2 @ 5.01% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 4.5% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-1 @ 3.78% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-2 @ 2.82% (0.0010000000000003 0)
4-0 @ 2.53% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.7% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
4-3 @ 1.4% (0.002 0)
5-2 @ 1.27%
5-0 @ 1.14% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 3.59%
Total : 54.74%
1-1 @ 7.96% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
2-2 @ 6.68% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-3 @ 2.49% (0.0050000000000003 0.01)
0-0 @ 2.37% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 0.6%
Total : 20.1%
1-2 @ 5.94% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
0-1 @ 3.54% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-3 @ 3.32% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.95% (0.008 0.01)
0-2 @ 2.64% (0.004 0)
0-3 @ 1.31% (0.004 0)
2-4 @ 1.24% (0.0049999999999999 0)
1-4 @ 1.1% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-4 @ 0.93% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.19%
Total : 25.16%

How you voted: PSV vs Sturm Graz

PSV Eindhoven
91.3%
Draw
7.2%
Sturm Graz
1.4%
69
Head to Head
Nov 25, 2021 8pm
Group Stage
PSV
2-0
Sturm Graz
Vinicius (45' pen.), Bruma (56')
Doan (76')

Gazibegovic (79')
> Preview
Sep 30, 2021 5.45pm
Group Stage
Sturm Graz
1-4
PSV
Gorenc Stankovic (55')
Kiteishvili (30'), Gazibegovic (47'), Gorenc Stankovic (57')
Sangare (32'), Zahavi (51'), Max (74'), Vertessen (78')
Boscagli (50'), Sangare (57'), Gakpo (64')
Sangare (89')
> Preview
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