Champions League | Third Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg
Aug 15, 2023 at 7.30pm UK
Merkur Arena
Sturm Graz1 - 3PSV
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Sturm Graz 0-0 Austria Klagenfurt
Saturday, August 12 at 4pm in Austrian Bundesliga
Saturday, August 12 at 4pm in Austrian Bundesliga
Last Game: PSV 2-0 Utrecht
Saturday, August 12 at 3.30pm in Eredivisie
Saturday, August 12 at 3.30pm in Eredivisie
We said: Sturm Graz 0-2 PSV Eindhoven (PSV win 6-1 on aggregate)
In an identical scenario to the 2021-22 Europa League group stage, PSV could very well follow up a 4-1 thrashing of Sturm Graz with a more lowkey two-goal success to ensure a straightforward route into the playoff round. Bosz may be tempted to tinker with his lineup, potentially giving the hosts a glimmer of hope, but the Dutch Super Cup winners should have an array of talent in reserve waiting to make an impact should things go pear-shaped. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 41.21%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 34.65% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.74%) and 0-2 (6.13%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 2-1 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sturm Graz | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
34.65% ( -0.16) | 24.14% ( 0.01) | 41.21% ( 0.15) |
| Both teams to score 60.57% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
