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Championship | Gameweek 46
May 4, 2024 at 12.30pm UK
Elland Road
Southampton logo

Leeds
1 - 2
Southampton

Piroe (21')
Gnonto (33'), Firpo (72'), Gruev (80'), Piroe (90+6')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Armstrong (18'), Smallbone (35')
Manning (33'), Bednarek (44'), Gruev (86'), Rothwell (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Leeds United and Southampton, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: QPR 4-0 Leeds
Friday, April 26 at 8pm in Championship
Last Game: Southampton 0-1 Stoke
Saturday, April 27 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Leeds United 2-2 Southampton

Regardless of whether automatic promotion is achievable or not, Leeds need to treat this fixture as a normal game in a bid to rediscover some form. Southampton have been poor themselves, yet we feel the Saints will do enough to earn a share of the spoils in an entertaining encounter. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 59.64%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 20.38% and a draw had a probability of 20%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.86%) and 1-0 (7.12%). The likeliest Southampton win was 1-2 (5.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.

Result
Leeds UnitedDrawSouthampton
59.64% (0.912 0.91) 19.98% (0.101 0.1) 20.38% (-1.012 -1.01)
Both teams to score 62.9% (-2.088 -2.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.69% (-1.981 -1.98)33.31% (1.983 1.98)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.92% (-2.303 -2.3)55.08% (2.303 2.3)
Leeds United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.01% (-0.36799999999999 -0.37)10.99% (0.371 0.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
64.74% (-0.824 -0.82)35.26% (0.826 0.83)
Southampton Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.67% (-2.044 -2.04)29.33% (2.046 2.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.69% (-2.581 -2.58)65.31% (2.583 2.58)
Score Analysis
    Leeds United 59.64%
    Southampton 20.38%
    Draw 19.98%
Leeds UnitedDrawSouthampton
2-1 @ 9.64% (0.176 0.18)
2-0 @ 7.86% (0.574 0.57)
1-0 @ 7.12% (0.621 0.62)
3-1 @ 7.1% (0.021999999999999 0.02)
3-0 @ 5.79% (0.339 0.34)
3-2 @ 4.35% (-0.242 -0.24)
4-1 @ 3.92% (-0.048 -0.05)
4-0 @ 3.19% (0.141 0.14)
4-2 @ 2.4% (-0.173 -0.17)
5-1 @ 1.73% (-0.048 -0.05)
5-0 @ 1.41% (0.041 0.04)
5-2 @ 1.06% (-0.094 -0.09)
4-3 @ 0.98% (-0.133 -0.13)
Other @ 3.09%
Total : 59.64%
1-1 @ 8.73% (0.291 0.29)
2-2 @ 5.91% (-0.234 -0.23)
0-0 @ 3.22% (0.326 0.33)
3-3 @ 1.78% (-0.21 -0.21)
Other @ 0.34%
Total : 19.98%
1-2 @ 5.35% (-0.127 -0.13)
0-1 @ 3.95% (0.19 0.19)
0-2 @ 2.43% (-0.019 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.42% (-0.244 -0.24)
1-3 @ 2.19% (-0.184 -0.18)
0-3 @ 0.99% (-0.067 -0.07)
Other @ 3.05%
Total : 20.38%

How you voted: Leeds vs Southampton

Leeds United
60.0%
Draw
40.0%
Southampton
0.0%
10
Head to Head
Sep 30, 2023 12.30pm
Gameweek 9
Southampton
3-1
Leeds
Armstrong (2', 35'), Smallbone (31')
Armstrong (12'), Smallbone (18'), Bednarek (37'), Charles (76')
Struijk (58')
Kamara (33')
Feb 25, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 25
Leeds
1-0
Southampton
Firpo (77')
Aug 13, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 2
Southampton
2-2
Leeds
Aribo (72'), Walker-Peters (81')
Salisu (78')
Rodrigo (46', 60')
Harrison (43'), Kristensen (45'), Aaronson (90+3')
Apr 2, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 31
Leeds
1-1
Southampton
Harrison (29')
Ayling (58'), Marsch (90+3')
Oct 16, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 8
Southampton
1-0
Leeds
Broja (53')
Bednarek (75'), McCarthy (83')

Roberts (47'), Struijk (58'), Llorente (70')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sunderland1594225111431
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd1510321971231
3Leeds UnitedLeeds158522491529
4Burnley157621861227
5West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom15672169725
6Watford158162322125
7Middlesbrough157352317624
8Millwall156541813523
9Blackburn RoversBlackburn156451917222
10Bristol City155732019122
11Swansea CitySwansea155461110119
12Derby CountyDerby155461919019
13Stoke CityStoke155461819-119
14Norwich CityNorwich154652322118
15Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds155371725-818
16Oxford UnitedOxford Utd154561718-117
17Coventry CityCoventry154472021-116
18Plymouth ArgylePlymouth154471526-1116
19Hull City153661620-415
20Preston North EndPreston153661523-815
21Luton TownLuton154381726-915
22Cardiff CityCardiff154381423-915
23Portsmouth152671628-1212
24Queens Park RangersQPR151771225-1310


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