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Championship | Gameweek 46
May 4, 2024 at 12.30pm UK
Elland Road
Southampton logo

Leeds
1 - 2
Southampton

Piroe (21')
Gnonto (33'), Firpo (72'), Gruev (80'), Piroe (90+6')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Armstrong (18'), Smallbone (35')
Manning (33'), Bednarek (44'), Gruev (86'), Rothwell (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Leeds United and Southampton, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: QPR 4-0 Leeds
Friday, April 26 at 8pm in Championship
Last Game: Southampton 0-1 Stoke
Saturday, April 27 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Leeds United 2-2 Southampton

Regardless of whether automatic promotion is achievable or not, Leeds need to treat this fixture as a normal game in a bid to rediscover some form. Southampton have been poor themselves, yet we feel the Saints will do enough to earn a share of the spoils in an entertaining encounter. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 59.64%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 20.38% and a draw had a probability of 20%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.86%) and 1-0 (7.12%). The likeliest Southampton win was 1-2 (5.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.

Result
Leeds UnitedDrawSouthampton
59.64% (0.912 0.91) 19.98% (0.101 0.1) 20.38% (-1.012 -1.01)
Both teams to score 62.9% (-2.088 -2.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.69% (-1.981 -1.98)33.31% (1.983 1.98)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.92% (-2.303 -2.3)55.08% (2.303 2.3)
Leeds United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.01% (-0.36799999999999 -0.37)10.99% (0.371 0.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
64.74% (-0.824 -0.82)35.26% (0.826 0.83)
Southampton Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.67% (-2.044 -2.04)29.33% (2.046 2.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.69% (-2.581 -2.58)65.31% (2.583 2.58)
Score Analysis
    Leeds United 59.64%
    Southampton 20.38%
    Draw 19.98%
Leeds UnitedDrawSouthampton
2-1 @ 9.64% (0.176 0.18)
2-0 @ 7.86% (0.574 0.57)
1-0 @ 7.12% (0.621 0.62)
3-1 @ 7.1% (0.021999999999999 0.02)
3-0 @ 5.79% (0.339 0.34)
3-2 @ 4.35% (-0.242 -0.24)
4-1 @ 3.92% (-0.048 -0.05)
4-0 @ 3.19% (0.141 0.14)
4-2 @ 2.4% (-0.173 -0.17)
5-1 @ 1.73% (-0.048 -0.05)
5-0 @ 1.41% (0.041 0.04)
5-2 @ 1.06% (-0.094 -0.09)
4-3 @ 0.98% (-0.133 -0.13)
Other @ 3.09%
Total : 59.64%
1-1 @ 8.73% (0.291 0.29)
2-2 @ 5.91% (-0.234 -0.23)
0-0 @ 3.22% (0.326 0.33)
3-3 @ 1.78% (-0.21 -0.21)
Other @ 0.34%
Total : 19.98%
1-2 @ 5.35% (-0.127 -0.13)
0-1 @ 3.95% (0.19 0.19)
0-2 @ 2.43% (-0.019 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.42% (-0.244 -0.24)
1-3 @ 2.19% (-0.184 -0.18)
0-3 @ 0.99% (-0.067 -0.07)
Other @ 3.05%
Total : 20.38%

How you voted: Leeds vs Southampton

Leeds United
60.0%
Draw
40.0%
Southampton
0.0%
10
Head to Head
Sep 30, 2023 12.30pm
Gameweek 9
Southampton
3-1
Leeds
Armstrong (2', 35'), Smallbone (31')
Armstrong (12'), Smallbone (18'), Bednarek (37'), Charles (76')
Struijk (58')
Kamara (33')
Feb 25, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 25
Leeds
1-0
Southampton
Firpo (77')
Aug 13, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 2
Southampton
2-2
Leeds
Aribo (72'), Walker-Peters (81')
Salisu (78')
Rodrigo (46', 60')
Harrison (43'), Kristensen (45'), Aaronson (90+3')
Apr 2, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 31
Leeds
1-1
Southampton
Harrison (29')
Ayling (58'), Marsch (90+3')
Oct 16, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 8
Southampton
1-0
Leeds
Broja (53')
Bednarek (75'), McCarthy (83')

Roberts (47'), Struijk (58'), Llorente (70')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds362210472234976
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd36246651272476
3Burnley362014249103974
4Sunderland361911654332168
5Coventry CityCoventry36168125246656
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom361316746321455
7Bristol City36131494639753
8Blackburn RoversBlackburn36157144137452
9Middlesbrough36148145547850
10Norwich CityNorwich361213115749849
11Watford36147154650-449
12Millwall361212123637-148
13Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds36139145056-648
14Queens Park RangersQPR361111144146-544
15Swansea CitySwansea36128163846-844
16Preston North EndPreston36916113642-643
17Portsmouth36119164457-1342
18Oxford UnitedOxford Utd36912153753-1639
19Hull City36910173645-937
20Stoke CityStoke36812163650-1436
21Cardiff CityCardiff36812163959-2036
22Derby CountyDerby3688203549-1432
23Luton TownLuton3687213259-2731
24Plymouth ArgylePlymouth36612183673-3730


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