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Championship | Gameweek 45
Apr 27, 2024 at 3pm UK
St. Mary's Stadium
Stoke logo

Southampton
0 - 1
Stoke


Stephens (42'), Brooks (44')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Campbell (36')
Cundle (38')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Southampton and Stoke City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Leicester 5-0 Southampton
Tuesday, April 23 at 8pm in Championship
Last Game: Stoke 3-0 Plymouth
Saturday, April 20 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Southampton 3-1 Stoke City

Stoke will be confident of causing an upset on the back of Southampton's defeat at Leicester. However, the Saints have performed far more consistently on home turf, leading us to predict a fairly-dominant victory for Martin's side. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 72.3%. A draw had a probability of 15.9% and a win for Stoke City had a probability of 11.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.24%) and 3-0 (8.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.12%), while for a Stoke City win it was 1-2 (3.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.

Result
SouthamptonDrawStoke City
72.3% (0.137 0.14) 15.9% (-0.049999999999999 -0.05) 11.81% (-0.081999999999999 -0.08)
Both teams to score 57.37% (-0.083000000000006 -0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
69.06% (0.028000000000006 0.03)30.94% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
47.68% (0.031999999999996 0.03)52.32% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)
Southampton Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
92.53% (0.036000000000001 0.04)7.47% (-0.032 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
73.16% (0.088000000000008 0.09)26.84% (-0.082999999999998 -0.08)
Stoke City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62% (-0.111 -0.11)38% (0.115 0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.24% (-0.106 -0.11)74.76% (0.11 0.11)
Score Analysis
    Southampton 72.3%
    Stoke City 11.81%
    Draw 15.9%
SouthamptonDrawStoke City
2-0 @ 9.55% (0.019 0.02)
2-1 @ 9.24% (-0.0089999999999986 -0.01)
3-0 @ 8.26% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
3-1 @ 7.99% (0.0040000000000004 0)
1-0 @ 7.36% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-0 @ 5.36% (0.028 0.03)
4-1 @ 5.19% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.87% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
5-0 @ 2.78% (0.02 0.02)
5-1 @ 2.69% (0.011 0.01)
4-2 @ 2.51% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
5-2 @ 1.3% (0.0010000000000001 0)
6-0 @ 1.2% (0.01 0.01)
6-1 @ 1.16% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 3.83%
Total : 72.3%
1-1 @ 7.12% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 4.47% (-0.018 -0.02)
0-0 @ 2.84% (-0.004 -0)
3-3 @ 1.25% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 15.9%
1-2 @ 3.45% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-1 @ 2.75% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.44% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-2 @ 1.33% (-0.01 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.11% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 1.73%
Total : 11.81%

How you voted: Southampton vs Stoke

Southampton
75.0%
Draw
14.3%
Stoke City
10.7%
28
Head to Head
Oct 3, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 10
Stoke
0-1
Southampton

Hoever (44'), Pearson (45'), Johnson (86'), Leris (87')
Armstrong (41')
Downes (86')
Sep 30, 2017 3pm
Stoke
2-1
Southampton
Biram Diouf (40'), Crouch (85')
Allen (30')
Yoshida (76')
Tadic (52'), Romeu (57')
May 21, 2017 3pm
Southampton
0-1
Stoke

Boufal (70'), Stephens (90')
Crouch (60')
Allen (53'), Whelan (63'), Sobhi (67'), Shaqiri (90')
Dec 14, 2016 8pm
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds362210472234976
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd36246651272476
3Burnley362014249103974
4Sunderland361911654332168
5Coventry CityCoventry36168125246656
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom361316746321455
7Bristol City36131494639753
8Blackburn RoversBlackburn36157144137452
9Middlesbrough36148145547850
10Norwich CityNorwich361213115749849
11Watford36147154650-449
12Millwall361212123637-148
13Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds36139145056-648
14Queens Park RangersQPR361111144146-544
15Swansea CitySwansea36128163846-844
16Preston North EndPreston36916113642-643
17Portsmouth36119164457-1342
18Oxford UnitedOxford Utd36912153753-1639
19Hull City36910173645-937
20Stoke CityStoke36812163650-1436
21Cardiff CityCardiff36812163959-2036
22Derby CountyDerby3688203549-1432
23Luton TownLuton3687213259-2731
24Plymouth ArgylePlymouth36612183673-3730


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