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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 48.94%. A win for Watford had a probability of 26.05% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.44%) and 2-0 (8.68%). The likeliest Watford win was 0-1 (7.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.
Result | ||
Leeds United | Draw | Watford |
48.94% ( 2.56) | 25.01% ( 0.09) | 26.05% ( -2.66) |
Both teams to score 52.77% ( -2.37) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.06% ( -2.15) | 49.93% ( 2.15) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.08% ( -1.95) | 71.92% ( 1.94) |
Leeds United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.57% ( 0.22) | 20.43% ( -0.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.13% ( 0.36) | 52.87% ( -0.36) |
Watford Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.32% ( -3.18) | 33.68% ( 3.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.67% ( -3.62) | 70.33% ( 3.61) |
Score Analysis |
Leeds United | Draw | Watford |
1-0 @ 10.92% ( 0.98) 2-1 @ 9.44% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 8.68% ( 0.84) 3-1 @ 5% ( 0.11) 3-0 @ 4.59% ( 0.47) 3-2 @ 2.72% ( -0.18) 4-1 @ 1.99% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 1.82% ( 0.2) 4-2 @ 1.08% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.69% Total : 48.93% | 1-1 @ 11.89% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 6.88% ( 0.58) 2-2 @ 5.14% ( -0.39) 3-3 @ 0.99% ( -0.16) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.01% | 0-1 @ 7.49% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.47% ( -0.53) 0-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.37) 1-3 @ 2.35% ( -0.43) 2-3 @ 1.87% ( -0.32) 0-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.28) Other @ 2.33% Total : 26.05% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sunderland | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 29 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 22 | 8 | 14 | 26 |
3 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 25 |
4 | Burnley | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 23 |
5 | Watford | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 22 |
6 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 21 |
7 | Millwall | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 19 |
8 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 19 |
9 | Bristol City | 13 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 19 |
10 | Norwich CityNorwich | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 18 |
11 | Middlesbrough | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 18 |
12 | Swansea CitySwansea | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 16 |
13 | Coventry CityCoventry | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 15 |
14 | Derby CountyDerby | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 15 |
15 | Hull City | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 15 |
16 | Stoke CityStoke | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 15 |
17 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 15 |
18 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 15 |
19 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 14 |
20 | Preston North EndPreston | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 14 |
21 | Luton TownLuton | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 12 |
22 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 12 |
23 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 13 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 10 |
24 | Portsmouth | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 9 |
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