Championship | Gameweek 38
Mar 15, 2025 at 3pm UK
Home Park
Plymouth2 - 3Derby
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Portsmouth 1-2 Plymouth
Wednesday, March 12 at 7.45pm in Championship
Wednesday, March 12 at 7.45pm in Championship
Goals
for
for
38
Last Game: Derby 2-0 Coventry
Tuesday, March 11 at 7.45pm in Championship
Tuesday, March 11 at 7.45pm in Championship
Goals
for
for
37
We said: Plymouth Argyle 2-1 Derby County
The two relegation-threatened sides will be desperate to claim all three points in Saturday's crucial fixture, but while Derby have won their last two matches at Pride Park, they have lost six of their last seven away games, and we believe that their struggles on the road will continue with a narrow defeat. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 40.75%. A win for Plymouth Argyle had a probability of 33.19% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.68%) and 0-2 (7.01%). The likeliest Plymouth Argyle win was 1-0 (8.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Plymouth Argyle | Draw | Derby County |
33.19% ( -0.07) | 26.06% ( 0.03) | 40.75% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 53.53% ( -0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.15% ( -0.14) | 50.85% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.26% ( -0.13) | 72.73% ( 0.13) |
| Plymouth Argyle Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.02% ( -0.11) | 28.98% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 35.12% ( -0.14) | 64.87% ( 0.14) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.37% ( -0.04) | 24.63% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 40.86% ( -0.06) | 59.14% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
Plymouth Argyle 33.19%
Derby County 40.75%
Draw 26.05%
| Plymouth Argyle | Draw | Derby County |
| 1-0 @ 8.84% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.67% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 5.48% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.17% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.26% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.22% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 0.98% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.58% Total : 33.19% | 1-1 @ 12.38% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.14% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 5.38% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.05% | 0-1 @ 10% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 8.68% 0-2 @ 7.01% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 4.05% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 3.27% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.51% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.42% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.15% Other @ 2.66% Total : 40.75% |
How you voted: Plymouth vs Derby
Plymouth Argyle
50.0%Draw
27.5%Derby County
22.5%40
