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Championship | Gameweek 35
Mar 1, 2025 at 3pm UK
Riverside Stadium
Derby logo

Middlesbrough
1 - 0
Derby

Azaz (80')
Azaz (81')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Barkhuizen (19'), Forsyth (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Middlesbrough and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Stoke 1-3 Middlesbrough
Tuesday, February 25 at 7.45pm in Championship
Last Game: Derby 0-1 Millwall
Saturday, February 22 at 12.30pm in Championship

We said: Middlesbrough 2-1 Derby County

Middlesbrough will have renewed belief after returning to winning ways in midweek, and we think that they will build upon their successful trip to the bet365 stadium by recording a narrow victory over a Derby side that have lost five of their last six away league matches. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 55.26%. A draw has a probability of 24.5% and a win for Derby County has a probability of 20.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (10.75%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.6%), while for a Derby County win it is 0-1 (7.05%).

Result
MiddlesbroughDrawDerby County
55.26% (-1.034 -1.03) 24.54% (0.355 0.36) 20.2% (0.681 0.68)
Both teams to score 47.45% (0.009999999999998 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.43% (-0.525 -0.52)53.57% (0.529 0.53)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.92% (-0.444 -0.44)75.08% (0.44800000000001 0.45)
Middlesbrough Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.7% (-0.59400000000001 -0.59)19.3% (0.597 0.6)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.94% (-0.991 -0.99)51.05% (0.994 0.99)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.8% (0.444 0.44)41.2% (-0.44 -0.44)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.27% (0.391 0.39)77.73% (-0.387 -0.39)
Score Analysis
    Middlesbrough 55.25%
    Derby County 20.2%
    Draw 24.54%
MiddlesbroughDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 13.08% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-0 @ 10.75% (-0.19 -0.19)
2-1 @ 9.54% (-0.048 -0.05)
3-0 @ 5.9% (-0.217 -0.22)
3-1 @ 5.23% (-0.127 -0.13)
4-0 @ 2.43% (-0.137 -0.14)
3-2 @ 2.32% (-0.028 -0.03)
4-1 @ 2.15% (-0.094 -0.09)
4-2 @ 0.95% (-0.03 -0.03)
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 55.25%
1-1 @ 11.6% (0.17 0.17)
0-0 @ 7.95% (0.164 0.16)
2-2 @ 4.23% (0.03 0.03)
Other @ 0.75%
Total : 24.54%
0-1 @ 7.05% (0.228 0.23)
1-2 @ 5.14% (0.132 0.13)
0-2 @ 3.13% (0.138 0.14)
1-3 @ 1.52% (0.057 0.06)
2-3 @ 1.25% (0.023 0.02)
0-3 @ 0.92% (0.051 0.05)
Other @ 1.19%
Total : 20.2%

How you voted: Middlesbrough vs Derby

Middlesbrough
76.5%
Draw
14.7%
Derby County
8.8%
34
Head to Head
Aug 17, 2024 12.30pm
Gameweek 2
Derby
1-0
Middlesbrough
Jackson (14')
Mendez-Laing (40'), Elder (67'), Jackson (90+2')

Latte Lath (42')
Feb 12, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 32
Middlesbrough
4-1
Derby
Buchanan (15' og.), Connolly (44'), Crooks (45+3'), Watmore (89')
Tavernier (27'), Crooks (31'), Howson (50')
Bird (39')
Lawrence (27'), Ebiowei (87'), (88')
Aug 21, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 4
Derby
0-0
Middlesbrough
Jagielka (66'), Byrne (90+1')
Peltier (30'), Tavernier (43'), Bola (54'), Jones (85')
Feb 13, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 29
Derby
2-1
Middlesbrough
Gregory (15'), Kazim-Richards (32')
Jozwiak (35'), Knight (90+4')
Kebano (38')
Dijksteel (62')
Nov 25, 2020 7pm
Gameweek 13
Middlesbrough
3-0
Derby
Assombalonga (33'), Clarke (71' og.), Johnson (83')

Jozwiak (9'), Lawrence (49'), Byrne (53'), Buchanan (65')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds362210472234976
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd36246651272476
3Burnley362014249103974
4Sunderland361911654332168
5Coventry CityCoventry36168125246656
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom361316746321455
7Bristol City36131494639753
8Blackburn RoversBlackburn36157144137452
9Middlesbrough36148145547850
10Norwich CityNorwich361213115749849
11Watford36147154650-449
12Millwall361212123637-148
13Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds36139145056-648
14Queens Park RangersQPR361111144146-544
15Swansea CitySwansea36128163846-844
16Preston North EndPreston36916113642-643
17Portsmouth36119164457-1342
18Oxford UnitedOxford Utd36912153753-1639
19Hull City36910173645-937
20Stoke CityStoke36812163650-1436
21Cardiff CityCardiff36812163959-2036
22Derby CountyDerby3688203549-1432
23Luton TownLuton3687213259-2731
24Plymouth ArgylePlymouth36612183673-3730


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