Following a 2-0 home win last week, Brazilian side Bragantino will travel to Paraguay to take on Club Libertad on Wednesday in the second leg of their Copa Sudamericana semi-final tie.
Mauricio Barbieri's side come in with a clear advantage following the dominant victory in the first leg, but they will know there is far more work to do if they are to qualify.
Match preview
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Libertad dominated their Copa Sudamericana group, qualifying with 13 points from their six games and scraped into the final eight on away goals, as a 4-3 away win over Junior and a 1-0 defeat saw the tie end level on aggregate.
They then met Brazilian side Santos in the quarter-finals and again benefitted from the away goals rule, as a 2-1 away defeat was enough to see them through after a 1-0 victory on home soil.
Now taking on Bragantino, they have a tough hill to climb after a disappointing 2-0 loss away from home, and they will not take confidence from their last league outing.
Following the first-leg defeat, Daniel Garnero's side travelled to take on Guairena in the Paraguayan top flight, looking to bounce back and build momentum for the home leg, but they were handed a disappointing 2-1 defeat to see them remain in seventh spot in the second stage of the domestic league.
With the need to overturn a two-goal deficit to reach the final, the Gumarelo will look to come out all guns blazing on Wednesday, but face a particularly tough test as Bragantino arrive with the aim of defending their lead.
The Brazilian side also topped their group with 12 points, and comfortably defeated Independiente del Valle over two legs in the round of 16.
Barbieri's side then defeated Argentinian side Rosario Central in impressive fashion, picking up a 4-3 away win and a 1-0 home victory to book their spot in the final four.
That saw them meet Libertad, and goals from Ytalo and Artur saw them take a two-goal lead coming into the second leg, although they were unable to build on that in domestic action last time out.
The Massa Bruta were handed a 2-1 defeat in their trip to Fluminense, seeing their title hopes continue to fade away after previously leading the Brazilian top flight.
That means the Copa Sudamericana could be their best chance of securing silverware this season, and Barbieri will be desperate for his side to see out the aggregate win and go within a game of winning the trophy.
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Team News
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Given their need for a turnaround, Libertad could be forced to call upon the services of veteran forward Oscar Cardozo, who was only used off the bench in the first leg.
He could join Sebastian Ferreira in a front two, with wingers Hector Villalba and Mathias Espinoza also getting forward as they chase goals.
Daniel Bocanegra offers vital experience in midfield, and the former Colombia international will continue to operate in the engine room.
Artur and Ytalo will both keep their places in the Bragantino attack after hitting goals in the first leg, while Helinho could be preferred to complete the front three.
Bruno Praxedes, Jadsom and Eric Ramires form a formidable midfield unit, and Barbieri should leave that unchanged as further support for the defence in their bid to defend a lead.
The back four of Aderlan, Fabricio Bruno, Leo Ortiz and Edimar kept a convincing clean sheet in the home leg, and they will hope for a similar performance on Wednesday.
Club Libertad possible starting lineup:
Silva; Mayada, Viera, Barboza, Vangioni; Villalba, H Martinez, Bocanegra, Espinoza; Cardozo, Ferreira
Bragantino possible starting lineup:
Schwengber; Aderlan, Bruno, Ortiz, Edimar; Praxedes, Jadsom, Ramires; Helinho, Ytalo, Atur
We say: Club Libertad 0-2 Bragantino (Bragantino win 4-0 on aggregate)
While Libertad will be chasing the game and have nothing to lose, their visitors have the quality to not only withstand the pressure, but to outclass the Paraguayan side for a second time.
Garnero's side will be left vulnerable to the break, and we see Bragantino dealing with the threat and further punishing their hosts.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 38.49%. A win for Club Libertad had a probability of 35.66% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.44%) and 0-2 (6.42%). The likeliest Club Libertad win was 1-0 (8.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bragantino would win this match.
