Copa Libertadores | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Aug 3, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio Gran Parque Central
Nacional0 - 0Boca Juniors
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Nacional 1-0 Cerro Largo
Saturday, July 22 at 11.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Saturday, July 22 at 11.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Independiente 0-2 Boca Juniors
Saturday, July 29 at 9pm in Argentine Primera Division
Saturday, July 29 at 9pm in Argentine Primera Division
We said: Nacional 1-1 Boca Juniors
While Boca Juniors may boast slightly more quality than their hosts, we do see the two teams as relatively evenly matched, and with Almiron's side expected to be somewhat cautious away from home, we anticipate the first leg finishing level in Uruguay. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 36.56%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 34.59% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.6%) and 0-2 (6.92%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (11.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Boca Juniors |
34.59% ( 0.98) | 28.84% ( -0.54) | 36.56% ( -0.45) |
| Both teams to score 45.3% ( 1.58) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.7% ( 1.87) | 61.29% ( -1.88) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.78% ( 1.37) | 81.21% ( -1.38) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.66% ( 1.67) | 33.34% ( -1.67) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 30.04% ( 1.79) | 69.96% ( -1.79) |
| Boca Juniors Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.95% ( 0.68) | 32.05% ( -0.69) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 31.48% ( 0.77) | 68.52% ( -0.77) |
| Score Analysis |
Nacional 34.59%
Boca Juniors 36.56%
Draw 28.83%
| Nacional | Draw | Boca Juniors |
| 1-0 @ 11.73% ( -0.29) 2-1 @ 7.34% ( 0.29)2-0 @ 6.45% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 2.69% ( 0.22)3-0 @ 2.36% ( 0.15)3-2 @ 1.53% ( 0.15)Other @ 2.5% Total : 34.59% | 1-1 @ 13.35% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 10.68% ( -0.77)2-2 @ 4.17% ( 0.24)Other @ 0.63% Total : 28.83% | 0-1 @ 12.15% ( -0.64) 1-2 @ 7.6% ( 0.1)0-2 @ 6.92% ( -0.23)1-3 @ 2.88% ( 0.09)0-3 @ 2.62% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.58% ( 0.12)Other @ 2.8% Total : 36.56% |
How you voted: Nacional vs Boca Juniors
Nacional
15.0%Draw
40.0%Boca Juniors
45.0%20
Form Guide
