Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 48.35%. A win for Melgar had a probability of 26.32% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.37%) and 2-0 (8.69%). The likeliest Melgar win was 0-1 (7.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bahia would win this match.
