While the visitors' record has been nothing special of late, they have looked like a different team in this competition. Based on form, LDU Quito should win this match, but we are backing Defensa y Justicia to to keep this one level heading into the second leg. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a LDU Quito win with a probability of 49.06%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 26.36% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a LDU Quito win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (8.42%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that LDU Quito would win this match.

Result
LDU Quito	Draw	Defensa y Justicia
49.06% ( 0.32)	24.58% ( -0.48)	26.36% ( 0.16)

Both teams to score 54.43% (

1.66)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.11% (

2.11)

47.89% (

-2.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.93% (

1.92)

70.07% (

-1.91)

LDU Quito Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.44% (

0.98)

19.56% (

-0.98)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.52% (

1.57)

51.48% (

-1.57)

Defensa y Justicia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.67% (

1.25)

32.33% (

-1.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.16% (

1.39)

68.84% (

-1.39)

Score Analysis

LDU Quito 49.06%

Defensa y Justicia 26.36%

Draw 24.58%

LDU Quito	Draw	Defensa y Justicia
1-0 @ 10.32% ( -0.59) 2-1 @ 9.51% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 8.42% ( -0.22) 3-1 @ 5.17% ( 0.19) 3-0 @ 4.58% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.92% ( 0.2) 4-1 @ 2.11% ( 0.14) 4-0 @ 1.87% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 1.19% ( 0.12) Other @ 2.98% Total : 49.06%	1-1 @ 11.65% ( -0.26) 0-0 @ 6.33% ( -0.57) 2-2 @ 5.37% ( 0.22) 3-3 @ 1.1% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.58%	0-1 @ 7.14% ( -0.39) 1-2 @ 6.58% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 4.03% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 2.48% ( 0.11) 2-3 @ 2.02% ( 0.15) 0-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.6% Total : 26.36%