Coppa Italia | Round of 16

Dec 5, 2023 at 8pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Lazio
1 - 0
Genoa

Guendouzi (5')
Pellegrini (90+4')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Galdames (49'), Fini (85')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Coppa Italia clash between Lazio and Genoa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lazio

All competitions

Last Game: Lazio 1-0 Cagliari
Saturday, December 2 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Genoa

All competitions

Coppa Italia

Last Game: Genoa 1-1 Empoli
Saturday, December 2 at 2pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Setting up a potential Derby della Capitale clash in the quarter-finals - where arch-rivals Roma will await if they can overcome second-tier Cremonese - Lazio should make the most of home advantage to knock out Genoa, whose main goal is Serie A survival. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 58.25%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 16.72%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.58%) and 2-1 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.36%), while for a Genoa win it was 0-1 (7.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lazio in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Lazio.

Result
Lazio	Draw	Genoa
58.25% ( 0.07)	25.02% ( -0.03)	16.72% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 40.68% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.48% (

0.04)

59.52% (

-0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.13% (

0.03)

79.87% (

-0.03)

Lazio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.54% (

0.04)

20.46% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.08% (

0.07)

52.92% (

-0.07)

Genoa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

51.14% (

-0.02)

48.86% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.15% (

-0.02)

83.85% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Lazio 58.24%

Genoa 16.72%

Draw 25.02%

Lazio	Draw	Genoa
1-0 @ 15.85% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 12.58% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.01% ( 0) 3-0 @ 6.66% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.77% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.64% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.89% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.71% ( 0) Other @ 3.13% Total : 58.24%	1-1 @ 11.36% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.99% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 3.23% ( -0) Other @ 0.44% Total : 25.02%	0-1 @ 7.16% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.56% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 0.97% ( -0) Other @ 1.96% Total : 16.72%