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Derby logo
Championship | Gameweek 13
Oct 19, 2021 at 7.45pm UK
Pride Park
Luton Town

Derby
2 - 2
Luton

Lawrence (20'), Knight (60')
Lawrence (90+2')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Onyedinma (49'), Adebayo (84')
Naismith (14'), Ruddock (90+2')

Preview: Derby County vs. Luton Town - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Championship clash between Derby County and Luton Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Tuesday's Championship action includes the troubled Derby County hosting mid-table Luton Town at Pride Park Stadium.

For all the problems off the pitch this season, the hosts continue to fight on impressively in England's second tier, whilst the visitors will be looking to continue their fine start to the campaign.


Match preview

Derby County's Craig Forsyth celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on September 29, 2021© Reuters

Derby continued where they left off before the international break when they visited Preston North End at the weekend, battling to yet another hard-earned point in a goalless draw at Deepdale.

That was their sixth draw from 12 league games so far for Wayne Rooney's side, as they remain one of the toughest sides to break down in the division, despite numerous issues off the pitch hampering the club.

The club remain in administration as things stand, with a potential takeover still rumbling on, which has seen the Rams docked 12 points already and have a transfer embargo placed on them in the summer.

As a result, Rooney was restricted to free transfer signings on low wages and youngsters from the academy, but their spirits have not been dampened on the pitch and performances and results have been excellent under the circumstances.

Without the points deduction, County would find themselves in 14th place in the Championship, but instead, they are rooted to the bottom of the table and six points from safety.

The highly-experienced duo of Curtis Davies and Phil Jagielka have been vital to their solid setup so far, contributing to the joint-best defence across the division with just eight goals conceded.

Although only seven goals have been netted during this time, with some disagreeing with the lack of entertainment on display, it is understandable given the situation that Rooney finds his side in.

Luton Town's Luke Berry celebrates scoring their second goal on September 11, 2021© Reuters

Meanwhile, Luton supporters continue to dream of an unlikely push for the playoffs, with their side currently sitting in 10th place and just three points off sixth place heading into Tuesday's fixture.

Like their hosts in midweek, the Hatters have lost just three times so far under manager Nathan Jones this campaign, who is in his second full season back in charge since returning to the club.

Since the shock 5-0 home defeat to Birmingham City back in August, Luton have tasted defeat just the once in the eight games that have followed, which actually arrived away to top-of-the-table Bournemouth.

Part of the reason for this strong run of form is the tightening up at the back in recent weeks, which has seen Town keep three successive clean sheets, after initially conceding 18 goals across their opening 10 games in all competitions.

Most recently, Jones' side earned an impressive 2-0 victory in the capital when they visited Millwall at the weekend.

Despite being far from their best, Luton came away with all three points largely thanks to the previously mentioned organisation in defence, as well as some goalkeeping heroics from Simon Sluga in between the posts.

A Harry Cornick brace was the difference between the sides, in which Luton had to dig in deep during large periods of pressure from their hosts.

Derby County Championship form:
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • D

Luton Town Championship form:
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • W



Team News

Derby County manager Wayne Rooney on September 14, 2021© Reuters

Long-term absentee Krystian Bielik remains absent for Derby on Tuesday, whilst there are doubts over full-back Craig Forsyth and striker Sam Baldock.

Forsyth missed the weekend draw in Preston due to illness, whilst Baldock was substituted early in that match due to suffering a broken nose, although due to the desperate nature of the hosts, the striker is likely to play still.

Right-back Nathan Byrne returns from a one-match suspension, though, and Colin Kazim-Richards is available, although he will be restricted to substitute appearances as he continues to rebuild his fitness.

As for the visitors, manager Jones appears to have a fully-fit squad to choose from, as he did for the win at Millwall at the weekend.

That means an unchanged lineup is expected to be named, with the recently-returned Pelly Ruddock-Mpanzu starting in midfield again, and Fred Onyedinma and Admiral Muskwe having to settle for places on the bench after returning from injuries themselves at the weekend.

Derby County possible starting lineup:
Allsop; Byrne, Jagielka, Davies, Buchanan; Bird, Shinnie; Knight, Morrison, Lawrence; Baldock

Luton Town possible starting lineup:
Sluga; Lockyer, Bradley, Naismith; Bree, Rea, Ruddock-Mpanzu, Bell; Clark; Adebayo, Cornick


SM words green background

We say: Derby County 1-1 Luton Town

With the strong run of form that both sides find themselves on, as well as their defensive successes as of late, it is hard to imagine many goals being scored on Tuesday.

With that in mind, a tight affair is likely to lead to a low-scoring draw, which is why a 1-1 appears to be a likely outcome at Pride Park Stadium.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 40.39%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 30.81% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.01%) and 0-2 (7.89%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (11.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Derby vs Luton

Derby County
35.3%
Draw
30.6%
Luton Town
34.1%
85
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