We said: Crewe Alexandra 1-2 Rotherham United
Crewe have largely been in better form of late despite their hammering on New Year's Day, but Rotherham have been on another level in League One this season so it is difficult to see past them on Tuesday.
The hosts will be sure to make it difficult for them and we can see them nicking a goal, but the visitors should have enough quality in them to see them through to the next round relatively comfortably.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rotherham United win with a probability of 56.43%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 20.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rotherham United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.89%) and 0-2 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a Crewe Alexandra win it was 1-0 (5.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rotherham United would win this match.
