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Portsmouth
EFL Trophy | Third Round
Dec 13, 2022 at 7pm UK
Fratton Park
Stevenage

Portsmouth
3 - 0
Stevenage

Mingi (37'), Koroma (59'), Pigott (90+4')
Dale (18'), Oluwayemi (73')
FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Trophy clash between Portsmouth and Stevenage, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Portsmouth

All competitions
EFL Trophy
Last Game: Wycombe 2-0 Portsmouth
Sunday, December 4 at 12.30pm in League One

Stevenage

All competitions
EFL Trophy
Last Game: Stevenage 0-0 Mansfield
Saturday, December 10 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Portsmouth 1-1 Stevenage

 With five of their last six home games in all competitions finishing all square, we think that Pompey will play out another draw on Tuesday against Stevenage, which would send the last-16 tie to penalties. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portsmouth win with a probability of 41.24%. A win for Stevenage had a probability of 32.87% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portsmouth win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Stevenage win was 0-1 (8.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portsmouth would win this match.

Result
PortsmouthDrawStevenage
41.24% (0.094999999999999 0.09) 25.88% (0.024999999999999 0.02) 32.87% (-0.116 -0.12)
Both teams to score 54% (-0.112 -0.11)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.8% (-0.127 -0.13)50.2% (0.129 0.13)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.84% (-0.112 -0.11)72.16% (0.11399999999999 0.11)
Portsmouth Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.91% (-0.0080000000000098 -0.01)24.09% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.62% (-0.012 -0.01)58.38% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Stevenage Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.13% (-0.13800000000001 -0.14)28.86% (0.14 0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.27% (-0.171 -0.17)64.73% (0.173 0.17)
Score Analysis
    Portsmouth 41.24%
    Stevenage 32.87%
    Draw 25.88%
PortsmouthDrawStevenage
1-0 @ 9.9% (0.048999999999999 0.05)
2-1 @ 8.75% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-0 @ 7.04% (0.032999999999999 0.03)
3-1 @ 4.15% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-0 @ 3.34% (0.015 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.58% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.48% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-0 @ 1.19% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
4-2 @ 0.92% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 1.89%
Total : 41.24%
1-1 @ 12.29% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 6.95% (0.036 0.04)
2-2 @ 5.44% (-0.017 -0.02)
3-3 @ 1.07% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.88%
0-1 @ 8.64% (0.012 0.01)
1-2 @ 7.64% (-0.021 -0.02)
0-2 @ 5.37% (-0.013 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.17% (-0.021 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.25% (-0.016 -0.02)
0-3 @ 2.22% (-0.015 -0.02)
1-4 @ 0.98% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 2.6%
Total : 32.87%

How you voted: Portsmouth vs Stevenage

Portsmouth
56.7%
Draw
40.0%
Stevenage
3.3%
30
Head to Head
Aug 29, 2020 3pm
First Round
Stevenage
3-3
Portsmouth
 Portsmouth win 3-1 on penalties
List (9'), Carter (10'), Cuthbert (29')
Curtis (21'), Evans (45+2' pen.), Marquis (51')
Evans (44')
Mar 18, 2017 3pm
Stevenage
3-0
Portsmouth
King (16'), Godden (28'), McAnuff (46')
Wilkinson (34'), Pett (45'), Gorman (85'), Franks (86')

Stevens (27'), Burgess (31'), Baker (54')
Burgess (75')
Nov 26, 2016 3pm
Portsmouth
1-2
Stevenage
Smith (80')
Smith (73'), Evans (91')
Schumacher (71'), Godden (75')
Gorman (39'), Wilkinson (45'), King (94')
Mar 5, 2016 3pm
Stevenage
0-2
Portsmouth

Wilkinson (38')
McNulty (22'), Naismith (82')
McNulty (23')
Oct 20, 2015 7.45pm
Portsmouth
1-1
Stevenage
Chaplin (77')
Williams (94')
Tonge (69')
rhs 2.0
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