EFL Trophy | Third Round

Dec 13, 2022 at 7pm UK

Fratton Park

Portsmouth
3 - 0
Stevenage

Mingi (37'), Koroma (59'), Pigott (90+4')
Dale (18'), Oluwayemi (73')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Trophy clash between Portsmouth and Stevenage, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Portsmouth

All competitions

EFL Trophy

Last Game: Wycombe 2-0 Portsmouth
Sunday, December 4 at 12.30pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Stevenage

All competitions

EFL Trophy

Last Game: Stevenage 0-0 Mansfield
Saturday, December 10 at 3pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Portsmouth 1-1 Stevenage

With five of their last six home games in all competitions finishing all square, we think that Pompey will play out another draw on Tuesday against Stevenage, which would send the last-16 tie to penalties. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portsmouth win with a probability of 41.24%. A win for Stevenage had a probability of 32.87% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portsmouth win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Stevenage win was 0-1 (8.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portsmouth would win this match.

Result
Portsmouth	Draw	Stevenage
41.24% ( 0.09)	25.88% ( 0.02)	32.87% ( -0.12)

Both teams to score 54% (

-0.11)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.8% (

-0.13)

50.2% (

0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.84% (

-0.11)

72.16% (

0.11)

Portsmouth Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.91% (

-0.01)

24.09% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.62% (

-0.01)

58.38% (

0.02)

Stevenage Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.13% (

-0.14)

28.86% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.27% (

-0.17)

64.73% (

0.17)

Score Analysis

Portsmouth 41.24%

Stevenage 32.87%

Draw 25.88%

Portsmouth	Draw	Stevenage
1-0 @ 9.9% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 8.75% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.04% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 4.15% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.34% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.58% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.48% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.19% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 0.92% ( -0) Other @ 1.89% Total : 41.24%	1-1 @ 12.29% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.95% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.44% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.88%	0-1 @ 8.64% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.64% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 5.37% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.17% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.25% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.22% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.6% Total : 32.87%