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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 62.73%. A draw had a probability of 19.3% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 17.97%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.53%) and 1-0 (7.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.58%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 1-2 (4.88%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
Ajax | Draw | Heerenveen |
62.73% ( 0.22) | 19.29% ( 0.05) | 17.97% ( -0.27) |
Both teams to score 60.9% ( -0.75) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
66.09% ( -0.72) | 33.91% ( 0.72) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
44.24% ( -0.82) | 55.76% ( 0.82) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.62% ( -0.15) | 10.38% ( 0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
66.1% ( -0.35) | 33.9% ( 0.35) |
Heerenveen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.96% ( -0.72) | 32.04% ( 0.72) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.49% ( -0.82) | 68.51% ( 0.83) |
Score Analysis |
Ajax | Draw | Heerenveen |
2-1 @ 9.71% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 8.53% ( 0.21) 1-0 @ 7.54% ( 0.23) 3-1 @ 7.33% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 6.44% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 4.17% ( -0.09) 4-1 @ 4.15% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 3.65% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 2.36% ( -0.07) 5-1 @ 1.88% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 1.65% ( 0.01) 5-2 @ 1.07% ( -0.04) Other @ 4.23% Total : 62.73% | 1-1 @ 8.58% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 5.53% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 3.33% ( 0.12) 3-3 @ 1.58% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.28% Total : 19.29% | 1-2 @ 4.88% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 3.79% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 2.15% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.1% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 1.85% ( -0.05) Other @ 3.21% Total : 17.97% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 16 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 56 | 13 | 43 | 42 |
2 | Ajax | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 36 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 36 |
4 | Feyenoord | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 40 | 18 | 22 | 35 |
5 | FC Twente | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 31 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 17 | 13 | 29 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 22 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 22 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 22 |
10 | Heerenveen | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 21 |
11 | Willem II | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 19 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 17 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
14 | Groningen | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 12 |
17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 16 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 17 | 40 | -23 | 6 |
18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 16 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 7 | 37 | -30 | 6 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |