Form, Standings, Stats
Thursday, October 5 at 5.45pm in Europa League
Thursday, October 5 at 8pm in Europa Conference League
We said: Ajax 0-1 AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar have a solid record against Ajax, and they have looked a far superior side at the beginning of the season, currently sitting 14 points clear in the Eredivisie table. As such, we think the visitors may be able to pick up a narrow victory this weekend, extending their unbeaten run to eight Eredivisie games. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 38.57%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 37.51% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.1%) and 0-2 (5.52%). The likeliest Ajax win was 2-1 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
37.51% ( 0.7) | 23.91% ( 0.19) | 38.57% ( -0.89) |
| Both teams to score 61.82% ( -0.66) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.59% ( -0.87) | 40.41% ( 0.87) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.21% ( -0.9) | 62.79% ( 0.9) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.36% ( -0.04) | 21.63% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 45.25% ( -0.05) | 54.75% ( 0.05) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.89% ( -0.8) | 21.11% ( 0.8) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 46.05% ( -1.26) | 53.94% ( 1.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 8.32% ( 0.11) 1-0 @ 6.99% ( 0.27)2-0 @ 5.35% ( 0.2)3-1 @ 4.25% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 3.3% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 2.73% ( 0.1)4-1 @ 1.63% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.27% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.05% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.63% Total : 37.51% | 1-1 @ 10.87% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 6.47% ( -0.07)0-0 @ 4.57% ( 0.18)3-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.91% | 1-2 @ 8.46% ( -0.08) 0-1 @ 7.1% ( 0.11)0-2 @ 5.52% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 4.39% ( -0.15)2-3 @ 3.36% ( -0.12)0-3 @ 2.86% ( -0.1)1-4 @ 1.71% ( -0.1)2-4 @ 1.31% ( -0.08)0-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.76% Total : 38.57% |
