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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 38.57%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 37.51% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.1%) and 0-2 (5.52%). The likeliest Ajax win was 2-1 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.
Result | ||
Ajax | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
37.51% ( 0.7) | 23.91% ( 0.19) | 38.57% ( -0.89) |
Both teams to score 61.82% ( -0.66) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.59% ( -0.87) | 40.41% ( 0.87) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.21% ( -0.9) | 62.79% ( 0.9) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.36% ( -0.04) | 21.63% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.25% ( -0.05) | 54.75% ( 0.05) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.89% ( -0.8) | 21.11% ( 0.8) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.05% ( -1.26) | 53.94% ( 1.26) |
Score Analysis |
Ajax | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
2-1 @ 8.32% ( 0.11) 1-0 @ 6.99% ( 0.27) 2-0 @ 5.35% ( 0.2) 3-1 @ 4.25% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 3.3% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 2.73% ( 0.1) 4-1 @ 1.63% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.27% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.05% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.63% Total : 37.51% | 1-1 @ 10.87% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 6.47% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 4.57% ( 0.18) 3-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.91% | 1-2 @ 8.46% ( -0.08) 0-1 @ 7.1% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 5.52% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 4.39% ( -0.15) 2-3 @ 3.36% ( -0.12) 0-3 @ 2.86% ( -0.1) 1-4 @ 1.71% ( -0.1) 2-4 @ 1.31% ( -0.08) 0-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.76% Total : 38.57% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 9 | 31 | 33 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 28 |
3 | Ajax | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 26 |
4 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 13 | 15 | 25 |
5 | FC Twente | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 22 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
7 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 17 |
8 | NECNijmegen | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 16 |
9 | Willem II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
10 | Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 15 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 15 |
12 | Heerenveen | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
13 | Groningen | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 12 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
15 | Heracles | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 27 | -21 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 4 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |