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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 46.97%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 28.63% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.37%) and 0-2 (7.66%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 2-1 (7.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
Result | ||
Vitesse | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
28.63% ( -0.02) | 24.39% ( 0.22) | 46.97% ( -0.21) |
Both teams to score 56.84% ( -0.78) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.45% ( -1.02) | 45.54% ( 1.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.13% ( -0.98) | 67.87% ( 0.98) |
Vitesse Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.6% ( -0.53) | 29.4% ( 0.53) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.61% ( -0.66) | 65.39% ( 0.66) |
PSV Eindhoven Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.51% ( -0.49) | 19.49% ( 0.49) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.63% ( -0.81) | 51.37% ( 0.81) |
Score Analysis |
Vitesse | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
2-1 @ 7.02% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 7.02% ( 0.2) 2-0 @ 4.29% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 2.87% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 2.34% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 1.75% ( -0) Other @ 3.34% Total : 28.63% | 1-1 @ 11.47% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 5.74% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 5.73% ( 0.25) 3-3 @ 1.28% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.39% | 1-2 @ 9.38% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 9.37% ( 0.26) 0-2 @ 7.66% ( 0.1) 1-3 @ 5.11% ( -0.09) 0-3 @ 4.18% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.13% ( -0.1) 1-4 @ 2.09% ( -0.07) 0-4 @ 1.71% ( -0.03) 2-4 @ 1.28% ( -0.06) Other @ 3.07% Total : 46.98% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 18 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 61 | 15 | 46 | 46 |
2 | Ajax | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 39 | 17 | 22 | 42 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 39 |
4 | Feyenoord | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 41 | 23 | 18 | 35 |
5 | FC Twente | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 38 | 23 | 15 | 34 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 19 | 14 | 33 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 28 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 25 |
9 | Heerenveen | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 24 |
10 | Willem II | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 25 | -2 | 22 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 31 | -10 | 22 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 20 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 17 |
14 | Groningen | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 17 |
15 | Heracles | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 15 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 18 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 13 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 37 | -27 | 10 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 18 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 7 |
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