Europa League

Europa League | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg

Apr 18, 2024 at 8pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Roma
2 - 1
AC Milan

(Roma win 3-1 on aggregate)

Mancini (12'), Dybala (22')
Celik (31')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Gabbia (85')
Calabria (32'), Gabbia (46'), Adli (51'), Jovic (77'), Tomori (89'), Hernandez (90+2')

The Match

Match Report

Roma book their spot in the semi-finals of the Europa League courtesy of a 3-1 aggregate victory over Serie A rivals AC Milan in the quarter-finals of the competition.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Roma and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Roma

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: AC Milan 0-1 Roma
Thursday, April 11 at 8pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

AC Milan

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Sassuolo 3-3 AC Milan
Sunday, April 14 at 2pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 40.56%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 33.68% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.7%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 0-1 (8.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.

Result
Roma	Draw	AC Milan
40.56% ( -0.01)	25.75% ( -0.01)	33.68% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 54.67% (

0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.56% (

0.04)

49.44% (

-0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.52% (

0.04)

71.47% (

-0.04)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.9% (

0.02)

24.1% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.61% (

0.02)

58.39% (

-0.02)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.02% (

0.03)

27.98% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.38% (

0.04)

63.61% (

-0.04)

Score Analysis

Roma 40.56%

AC Milan 33.68%

Draw 25.75%

Roma	Draw	AC Milan
1-0 @ 9.59% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.7% 2-0 @ 6.83% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.13% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.24% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.63% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.47% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.15% 4-2 @ 0.94% ( 0) Other @ 1.9% Total : 40.56%	1-1 @ 12.22% 0-0 @ 6.74% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.54% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.12% ( 0) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.75%	0-1 @ 8.59% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.78% ( 0) 0-2 @ 5.47% 1-3 @ 3.31% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.35% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.32% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.05% ( 0) Other @ 2.81% Total : 33.68%