Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 66.59%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 13.21%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.6%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.58%), while for a Lecce win it was 0-1 (4.77%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
Result | ||
AC Milan | Draw | Lecce |
66.59% ( 0.25) | 20.2% ( -0.1) | 13.21% ( -0.16) |
Both teams to score 46.11% ( -0.12) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.3% ( 0.07) | 47.7% ( -0.08) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.1% ( 0.07) | 69.9% ( -0.07) |
AC Milan Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.57% ( 0.1) | 13.43% ( -0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
59.61% ( 0.2) | 40.39% ( -0.2) |
Lecce Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
53.26% ( -0.2) | 46.74% ( 0.2) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
17.71% ( -0.15) | 82.29% ( 0.15) |
Score Analysis |
AC Milan | Draw | Lecce |
2-0 @ 12.65% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 12.6% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.62% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 8.47% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 6.44% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 4.25% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 3.23% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.45% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.71% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 1.3% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.23% Other @ 2.64% Total : 66.58% | 1-1 @ 9.58% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 6.28% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 3.66% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.68% Total : 20.2% | 0-1 @ 4.77% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 3.64% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 1.82% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.12% Total : 13.21% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 34 | 16 | 18 | 28 |
2 | Inter Milan | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 31 | 14 | 17 | 28 |
3 | Napoli | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 26 |
4 | Fiorentina | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 25 | 10 | 15 | 25 |
5 | Juventus | 13 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 14 | 25 |
6 | Lazio | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 25 |
7 | AC Milan | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 19 |
8 | Bologna | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 18 |
9 | Udinese | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 16 |
10 | Empoli | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 15 |
11 | Torino | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 14 |
12 | Roma | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 13 |
13 | Parma | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 12 |
14 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 12 |
15 | Como | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 10 |
16 | CagliariCagliari | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 10 |
17 | Genoa | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 10 |
18 | Lecce | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 21 | -16 | 9 |
19 | Monza | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 8 |
20 | VeneziaVenezia | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 8 |
> Serie A Full Table |