Union Berlin will have the chance to give themselves significant breathing room in their bid to stay in the Bundesliga when they travel to play Hoffenheim at PreZero Arena on Saturday.
Hoffenheim are fourth last in 15th place with 18 points and are just four points above the division's 16th-placed relegation playoff spot, while Union have three points more in 14th place and drew 0-0 with RB Leipzig on February 1.
Match preview
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The hosts were beaten 3-1 by Bayer Leverkusen on February 2, a match in which they produced 2.26 xG – significantly more than Leverkusen's 1.4 xG – but only looked threatening after the champions had been reduced to 10 men in the 61st minute when they were already winning 3-0.
Hoffenheim's disastrous 2024-25 campaign stands in complete contrast to their 2023-24 season when they finished seventh with 46 points and qualified for the Europa League, and they are currently on track to record just 31 points this term.
Head coach Christian Ilzer could point to the fact his side have rediscovered their goalscoring form having found the back of the net 12 times in their last five games, more than they had managed in their prior 16.
Die Kraichgauer have also won two of their past five in all competitions – as many as they had in their previous 14 – but they were defeated 2-1 by Union in the league on September 21.
Ilzer's side are winless in their six most recent fixtures at home, losing three of their last four while conceding eight goals in that period.
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Visitors Union were arguably unfortunate to not take all three points against Leipzig considering they not only limited Die Roten Bullen to just one shot on target from inside the box but also generated 1.27 xG, more than four times their opponents' figure of 0.27 xG.
Boss Steffen Baumgart will be alarmed by his side's performances in the final third given they have only scored two goals in their past five games, failing to impact on the scoreline on four occasions.
Die Eisernen's record at the back is also concerning, as while they kept three clean sheets in their first four matches of 2024-25, they have conceded 16 goals in their last eight outings.
To their credit, the visitors have picked up four points from their three most recent Bundesliga fixtures, though they did lose seven and draw three of their prior 10.
Baumgart's team have been defeated in each of their last six league matches on the road - failing to score four times - and they have in fact lost 18, drawn six and won just two of their past 26 away from home in the top flight.
Team News
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Hoffenheim's list of injury absentees remains extensive, though several players like defenders Christopher Lenz and Valentin Gendrey could return to action later this month.
Perhaps goalkeeper Luca Philipp will be shielded by a central defence consisting of Arthur Chaves and Kevin Akpoguma given shot-stopper Oliver Baumann has been ruled out.
Key midfielder Anton Stach is set to be sidelined until early March, joining Grischa Promel, Umut Tohumcu and Diadie Samassekou, and their absences could lead Ilzer to start Dennis Geiger and Finn Ole Becker together in the middle of the pitch.
Erencan Yardimci may lead the line on Saturday given he was selected ahead of Gift Orban against Leverkusen last time out.
Meanwhile, Union goalkeeper Frederik Ronnow is likely to be protected by a back four featuring Josip Juranovic, Danilho Doekhi, Diogo Leite and Robert Skov in light of Kevin Vogt's knee injury.
Midfielder Aljoscha Kemlein is scheduled to return to the pitch by the middle of this month, but until then Baumgart may start Janik Haberer and Rani Khedira together in a double pivot.
Ivan Prtajin could be trusted to lead the visitors' attack considering Andrej Ilic is still struggling with an ankle issue, and the forward may be supported by midfielder Andras Schafer.
Hoffenheim possible starting lineup:
Philipp; Kaderabek, Chaves, Akpoguma, Jurasek; Geiger, Becker; Bischof, Hlozek, Bulter; Yardimci
Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Ronnow; Juranovic, Doekhi, Leite, Skov; Haberer, Khedira; Skarke, Schafer, Hollerbach; Prtajin
We say: Hoffenheim 2-1 Union Berlin
It is difficult to see either team dominating given both have struggled in the past weeks, but Hoffenheim could have the edge considering Union have lost so frequently on the road.
Additionally, the hosts are in a good vein of goalscoring form despite suffering so many injuries, and they should be confident of holding onto a lead in light of the visitors' poor showings in the final third.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Lewis Nolan
