In their seventh Bundesliga game of the season, relegation battlers Holstein Kiel will host Union Berlin on Sunday at Holstein-Stadion.
The home team are second last in 17th place with just two points and are yet to win in the league this season so far, while the visitors are seventh with 11 points and appear to have overcome the difficulties of last season when they finished 15th.
Match preview
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Though newly-promoted Holstein Kiel occupy one of two automatic relegation spots, their performance this season is perhaps understandable given they have already faced Bayern Munich, Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen.
Fans may have some cause for optimism considering they have drawn two of their last three games, including a 2-2 stalemate with champions Leverkusen in their most recent match on October 5.
The Storks' draw was even more impressive in light of the fact they were trailing 2-0 after just eight minutes, but they managed to earn a point after a goal from Max Geschwill in the fifth minute of first-half stoppage time and an equalising penalty from Jann-Fiete Arp in the 69th minute.
However, boss Marcel Rapp will still be concerned that his team have conceded 19 goals in six Bundesliga matches, the most of any side in the division.
Holstein Kiel have lost all three of their home Bundesliga games this term, scoring three times and conceding on 12 occasions, including four against Eintracht Frankfurt in a 4-2 defeat in their last home match on September 29.
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The visitors come into Sunday's clash having beaten Nuri Sahin's Borussia Dortmund 2-1 in their most recent fixture on October 5, a match in which Union Berlin had just 32% possession but produced eight shots inside the box, twice as many as Dortmund.
Die Eisernen finished fourth in 2022-23 and managed to qualify for the Champions League, but the club finished 15th with 33 points last term and only avoided ending the season in the relegation playoff spot as a result of superior goal difference compared to VfL Bochum.
Union Berlin only collected 10 points from their first 14 league games of 2023-24 and lost four times in their first six matches of that campaign, but already have 11 points after six fixtures this term.
The away team have only lost once in all competitions this season, with the side losing 1-0 against Borussia Monchengladbach on September 28.
Manager Bo Svensson's team have scored six times and conceded four goals in the league, and these records make them the joint second-worst offensive club and second-best defensive team in the division respectively.
Svensson's team have lost four, drawn four and won none of their last eight away matches in the Bundesliga and have lost 12, drawn six and won just once in their 19 most recent fixtures on the road in the top flight.
Team News
%20in%20action%20for%20Holstein%20Kiel%20on%20September%2014,%202024.jpeg?w=640&h=480&auto=compress,format&fit=clip "Lewis Holtby (No. 10) in action for Holstein Kiel on September 14, 2024")
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Holstein Kiel will be unable to select Andu Yobel Kelati and Colin Kleine-Beckel due to knee injuries, though both are scheduled to return later in November.
Centre-back Carl Johansson is a doubt as a result of a concussion, while midfielder Lewis Holtby is likely to return later in October.
Marko Ivezic, Patrick Erras and Max Geschwill may be chosen to start in a back three, and Steven Skrzybski could start in place of Holtby.
The visitors will be without both striker Ivan Prtajin and goalkeeper Yannic Stein, although the latter could make a comeback this month.
Elsewhere, right-back Josip Juranovic is a doubt due to a foot injury, while midfielder Lucas Tousart may also miss out.
Frederik Ronnow is certain to start in goal behind a probable back three consisting of Danilho Doekhi, Kevin Vogt and Diogo Leite.
Holstein Kiel possible starting lineup:
Weiner; Ivezic, Erras, Geschwill; Becker, Skrzybski, Knudsen, Gigovic, Porath; Machino, Pichler
Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Ronnow; Doekhi, Vogt, Leite; Trimmel, Schafer, Khedira, Rothe; Jeong, Vertessen, Hollerbach
We say: Holstein Kiel 0-1 Union Berlin
While Union Berlin have struggled in front of goal, their defensive record is outstanding, and it would not be surprising if they limited Holstein Kiel's opportunities in the final third.
Although the hosts have been in somewhat better form of late, it is difficult to see how they avoid defeat given their poor home record and their defensive frailty.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Lewis Nolan
