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Bundesliga | Gameweek 6
Oct 5, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
Stadion An der Alten Forsterei
Dortmund logo

Union Berlin
2 - 1
Dortmund

Vogt (26' pen.), Vertessen (45')
Vogt (15'), Woo-yeong (41'), Rothe (84'), Trimmel (89')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Ryerson (62')
Schlotterbeck (17'), Sabitzer (83'), Anton (90+4'), Bensebaini (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Borussia M'bach 1-0 Union Berlin
Saturday, September 28 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Dortmund 7-1 Celtic
Tuesday, October 1 at 8pm in Champions League

We said: Union Berlin 0-1 Borussia Dortmund

Union Berlin's resilient defensive displays this season could make them stubborn opponents for Dortmund, and it would not be surprising if the away side needed a later winner to take all three points. If the visitors were to score early, it is difficult to see how the hosts get back into the game considering their poor offensive record this term. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 39.05%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 36.83% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.4%) and 2-0 (5.72%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Union Berlin in this match.

Result
Union BerlinDrawBorussia Dortmund
39.05% (-0.378 -0.38) 24.12% (-0.058 -0.06) 36.83% (0.434 0.43)
Both teams to score 61% (0.259 0.26)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.54% (0.321 0.32)41.46% (-0.324 -0.32)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.14% (0.323 0.32)63.86% (-0.325 -0.33)
Union Berlin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.66% (-0.043999999999997 -0.04)21.34% (0.041 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.7% (-0.065999999999995 -0.07)54.3% (0.064 0.06)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.55% (0.372 0.37)22.45% (-0.375 -0.38)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.01% (0.553 0.55)55.99% (-0.557 -0.56)
Score Analysis
    Union Berlin 39.05%
    Borussia Dortmund 36.83%
    Draw 24.11%
Union BerlinDrawBorussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 8.54% (-0.051 -0.05)
1-0 @ 7.4% (-0.118 -0.12)
2-0 @ 5.72% (-0.099 -0.1)
3-1 @ 4.4% (-0.032 -0.03)
3-2 @ 3.28% (0.013 0.01)
3-0 @ 2.94% (-0.054 -0.05)
4-1 @ 1.7% (-0.014 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.27% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-0 @ 1.14% (-0.023 -0.02)
Other @ 2.68%
Total : 39.05%
1-1 @ 11.05% (-0.049999999999999 -0.05)
2-2 @ 6.38% (0.032999999999999 0.03)
0-0 @ 4.79% (-0.071 -0.07)
3-3 @ 1.64% (0.024 0.02)
Other @ 0.26%
Total : 24.11%
1-2 @ 8.26% (0.052999999999999 0.05)
0-1 @ 7.16% (-0.025 -0.03)
0-2 @ 5.35% (0.040999999999999 0.04)
1-3 @ 4.11% (0.071 0.07)
2-3 @ 3.18% (0.051 0.05)
0-3 @ 2.66% (0.05 0.05)
1-4 @ 1.54% (0.043 0.04)
2-4 @ 1.19% (0.032 0.03)
0-4 @ 0.99% (0.029 0.03)
Other @ 2.41%
Total : 36.83%

How you voted: Union Berlin vs Dortmund

Union Berlin
14.0%
Draw
12.1%
Borussia Dortmund
73.8%
107
Head to Head
Mar 2, 2024 2.30pm
Gameweek 24
Union Berlin
0-2
Dortmund

Haberer (75'), Vertessen (90+5')
Adeyemi (41'), Maatsen (90')
Ryerson (45')
Oct 7, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 7
Dortmund
4-2
Union Berlin
Fullkrug (7'), Schlotterbeck (49'), Brandt (54'), Ryerson (71')
Hummels (30')
Gosens (9'), Bonucci (31' pen.)
Gosens (64')
Apr 8, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 27
Dortmund
2-1
Union Berlin
Malen (28'), Moukoko (79')
Behrens (61')
Oct 16, 2022 4.30pm
Gameweek 10
Union Berlin
2-0
Dortmund
Haberer (8', 21')
Feb 13, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 22
Union Berlin
0-3
Dortmund

Baumgartl (35'), Mohwald (76'), Knoche (90+2'), Schafer (90+5')
Reus (18', 25'), Guerreiro (71')
Brandt (39')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
FT
Texans
13-21
Jets
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern86202972220
2RB Leipzig86201431120
3Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen84312015515
4Union BerlinUnion Berlin843195415
5Freiburg85031311215
6Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt84221612414
7Borussia DortmundDortmund84131514113
8Stuttgart83321716112
9Werder Bremen83321416-212
10Heidenheim83141211110
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach83141113-210
12Augsburg83141219-710
13Mainz 05Mainz82331213-19
14Wolfsburg82241516-18
15Hoffenheim82241317-48
16St Pauli8125511-65
17Holstein Kiel80261023-132
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum8017722-151


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