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Bundesliga
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Bundesliga | Gameweek 6
Oct 5, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
Stadion An der Alten Forsterei
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Union Berlin
2 - 1
Dortmund

Vogt (26' pen.), Vertessen (45')
Vogt (15'), Woo-yeong (41'), Rothe (84'), Trimmel (89')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Ryerson (62')
Schlotterbeck (17'), Sabitzer (83'), Anton (90+4'), Bensebaini (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Union Berlin

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Borussia M'bach 1-0 Union Berlin
Saturday, September 28 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Dortmund 7-1 Celtic
Tuesday, October 1 at 8pm in Champions League

We said: Union Berlin 0-1 Borussia Dortmund

 Union Berlin's resilient defensive displays this season could make them stubborn opponents for Dortmund, and it would not be surprising if the away side needed a later winner to take all three points. If the visitors were to score early, it is difficult to see how the hosts get back into the game considering their poor offensive record this term. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 39.05%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 36.83% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.4%) and 2-0 (5.72%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Union Berlin in this match.

Result
Union BerlinDrawBorussia Dortmund
39.05% (-0.378 -0.38) 24.12% (-0.058 -0.06) 36.83% (0.434 0.43)
Both teams to score 61% (0.259 0.26)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.54% (0.321 0.32)41.46% (-0.324 -0.32)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.14% (0.323 0.32)63.86% (-0.325 -0.33)
Union Berlin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.66% (-0.043999999999997 -0.04)21.34% (0.041 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.7% (-0.065999999999995 -0.07)54.3% (0.064 0.06)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.55% (0.372 0.37)22.45% (-0.375 -0.38)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.01% (0.553 0.55)55.99% (-0.557 -0.56)
Score Analysis
    Union Berlin 39.05%
    Borussia Dortmund 36.83%
    Draw 24.11%
Union BerlinDrawBorussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 8.54% (-0.051 -0.05)
1-0 @ 7.4% (-0.118 -0.12)
2-0 @ 5.72% (-0.099 -0.1)
3-1 @ 4.4% (-0.032 -0.03)
3-2 @ 3.28% (0.013 0.01)
3-0 @ 2.94% (-0.054 -0.05)
4-1 @ 1.7% (-0.014 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.27% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-0 @ 1.14% (-0.023 -0.02)
Other @ 2.68%
Total : 39.05%
1-1 @ 11.05% (-0.049999999999999 -0.05)
2-2 @ 6.38% (0.032999999999999 0.03)
0-0 @ 4.79% (-0.071 -0.07)
3-3 @ 1.64% (0.024 0.02)
Other @ 0.26%
Total : 24.11%
1-2 @ 8.26% (0.052999999999999 0.05)
0-1 @ 7.16% (-0.025 -0.03)
0-2 @ 5.35% (0.040999999999999 0.04)
1-3 @ 4.11% (0.071 0.07)
2-3 @ 3.18% (0.051 0.05)
0-3 @ 2.66% (0.05 0.05)
1-4 @ 1.54% (0.043 0.04)
2-4 @ 1.19% (0.032 0.03)
0-4 @ 0.99% (0.029 0.03)
Other @ 2.41%
Total : 36.83%

How you voted: Union Berlin vs Dortmund

Union Berlin
14.0%
Draw
12.1%
Borussia Dortmund
73.8%
107
Head to Head
Mar 2, 2024 2.30pm
Gameweek 24
Union Berlin
0-2
Dortmund

Haberer (75'), Vertessen (90+5')
Adeyemi (41'), Maatsen (90')
Ryerson (45')
> Preview
Oct 7, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 7
Dortmund
4-2
Union Berlin
Fullkrug (7'), Schlotterbeck (49'), Brandt (54'), Ryerson (71')
Hummels (30')
Gosens (9'), Bonucci (31' pen.)
Gosens (64')
> Preview
Apr 8, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 27
Dortmund
2-1
Union Berlin
Malen (28'), Moukoko (79')
Behrens (61')
> Preview
Oct 16, 2022 4.30pm
Gameweek 10
Union Berlin
2-0
Dortmund
Haberer (8', 21')
> Preview
Feb 13, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 22
Union Berlin
0-3
Dortmund

Baumgartl (35'), Mohwald (76'), Knoche (90+2'), Schafer (90+5')
Reus (18', 25'), Guerreiro (71')
Brandt (39')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern18143156154145
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen18125144242041
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt18113442241836
4Stuttgart1895436261032
5RB Leipzig189453227531
6Mainz 05Mainz188463123828
7Wolfsburg188374032827
8Freiburg188372534-927
9Werder Bremen187563134-326
10Borussia DortmundDortmund187473231125
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach187382729-224
12Augsburg186482133-1222
13Union BerlinUnion Berlin185581624-820
14St Pauli1852111421-717
15Hoffenheim184592335-1217
16Heidenheim1842122338-1514
17Holstein Kiel1832132646-2011
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1824121740-2310
> Bundesliga Full Table


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