It is difficult to know exactly what to expect from international friendlies at this stage of the year, especially as neither side are playing in the European Championship. It would not be a surprise to see a win either way here, but we believe that a tight match will finish all square. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 52.02%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Belarus had a probability of 22.53%.

The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.07%) and 1-2 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.02%), while for a Belarus win it was 1-0 (7.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Russia would win this match.

Result
Belarus	Draw	Russia
22.53% ( -0.22)	25.44% ( -0.1)	52.02% ( 0.32)

Both teams to score 47.9% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.43% (

0.15)

54.57% (

-0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.09% (

0.13)

75.91% (

-0.12)

Belarus Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.63% (

-0.13)

39.38% (

0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.93% (

-0.12)

76.08% (

0.13)

Russia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79% (

0.2)

21% (

-0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.23% (

0.31)

53.77% (

-0.3)

Score Analysis

Belarus 22.53%

Russia 52.02%

Draw 25.44%

Belarus	Draw	Russia
1-0 @ 7.71% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 5.61% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 3.59% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 1.74% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.36% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 1.12% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.42% Total : 22.53%	1-1 @ 12.02% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 8.27% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 4.37% ( -0) Other @ 0.78% Total : 25.44%	0-1 @ 12.9% 0-2 @ 10.07% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 9.39% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 5.24% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 4.88% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.28% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 2.04% ( 0.04) 1-4 @ 1.91% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.32% Total : 52.02%