Friendlies 1

Mar 21, 2024 at 5pm UK

Arena Khimki

Russia
4 - 0
Serbia

Miranchuk (21' pen.), Osipenko (32'), Miranchuk (55'), Sergeev (90+1')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Gajic (21')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's friendly clash between Russia and Serbia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Russia

All competitions

Last Game: Russia 8-0 Cuba
Monday, November 20 at 4.30pm in International Friendlies

Current League B2 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Russia	0	0	0
2	Israel	0	0	0
3	Iceland	0	0	0
4	Albania	0	0	0

Serbia

All competitions

Last Game: Serbia 2-2 Bulgaria
Sunday, November 19 at 2pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group G Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Hungary	8	9	18
2	Serbia	8	6	14
3	Montenegro	8	-2	11
4	Lithuania	8	-6	6
5	Bulgaria	8	-7	4

It remains to be seen how strong both nations will line up for Thursday's friendly, but Serbia's squad possesses more experience and quality, so the visitors can be regarded as favourites to come out on top in Moscow. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 57.7%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Serbia had a probability of 19.56%.

The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.26%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.8%), while for a Serbia win it was 0-1 (5.91%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Russia would win this match.

Result
Russia	Draw	Serbia
57.7% ( 0.21)	22.74% ( 0.55)	19.56% ( -0.76)

Both teams to score 51.84% (

-3.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.79% (

-3.41)

47.21% (

3.41)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.56% (

-3.25)

69.44% (

3.25)

Russia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.91% (

-1.1)

16.09% (

1.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.52% (

-2.05)

45.48% (

2.05)

Serbia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.78% (

-2.75)

38.22% (

2.75)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.02% (

-2.74)

74.98% (

2.75)

Score Analysis

Russia 57.69%

Serbia 19.56%

Draw 22.73%

Russia	Draw	Serbia
1-0 @ 11.23% ( 1.15) 2-0 @ 10.26% ( 0.69) 2-1 @ 9.87% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 6.25% ( 0.19) 3-1 @ 6.01% ( -0.27) 3-2 @ 2.89% ( -0.36) 4-0 @ 2.86% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.75% ( -0.23) 4-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.22) 5-0 @ 1.04% ( -0.05) 5-1 @ 1% ( -0.13) Other @ 2.21% Total : 57.69%	1-1 @ 10.8% ( 0.35) 0-0 @ 6.15% ( 0.83) 2-2 @ 4.75% ( -0.4) 3-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.2) Other @ 0.11% Total : 22.73%	0-1 @ 5.91% ( 0.4) 1-2 @ 5.2% ( -0.22) 0-2 @ 2.84% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.67% ( -0.21) 2-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.26) 0-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.08) Other @ 1.51% Total : 19.56%