Friendlies 1

Oct 13, 2023 at 11.35am UK

Denka Big Swan Stadium

Japan
4 - 1
Canada

Tanaka (2', 49'), Davies (39' og.), Nakamura (42')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Hoilett (89')
Johnston (56')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's friendly clash between Japan and Canada, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Japan

All competitions

Last Game: Japan 4-2 Turkey
Tuesday, September 12 at 1.20pm in International Friendlies

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Japan	3	1	6
2	Spain	3	6	4
3	Germany	3	1	4
4	Costa Rica	3	-8	3

Canada

All competitions

Last Game: USA 2-2 Canada (3-2 pen.)
Monday, July 10 at 12.30am in CONCACAF Gold Cup

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Guatemala	3	2	7
2	Canada	3	2	5
3	Guadeloupe	3	2	4
4	Cuba	3	-6	0

Defensively, Canada have looked relatively poor of late against weaker opponents in their region, and it will not be easy containing a unit as creative as the Japanese, who are finding the back of the net at an alarming rate. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 39%. A win for Canada had a probability of 33.09% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.12%) and 2-0 (7.27%). The likeliest Canada win was 0-1 (10.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Japan would win this match.

Result
Japan	Draw	Canada
39% ( -0.15)	27.91% ( 0.04)	33.09% ( 0.11)

Both teams to score 47.77% (

-0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.85% (

-0.12)

58.15% (

0.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.19% (

-0.09)

78.81% (

0.09)

Japan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71% (

-0.15)

29% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.1% (

-0.18)

64.89% (

0.18)

Canada Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.27% (

0.02)

32.72% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.72% (

0.02)

69.28% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

Japan 38.99%

Canada 33.08%

Draw 27.91%

Japan	Draw	Canada
1-0 @ 11.74% 2-1 @ 8.12% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 7.27% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 3.35% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 3% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.87% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.04% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.67% Total : 38.99%	1-1 @ 13.12% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.49% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 4.54% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.76% Total : 27.91%	0-1 @ 10.59% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 7.33% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 5.92% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 2.73% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.2% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.69% ( -0) Other @ 2.62% Total : 33.08%