Making their first appearance at the knockout stage of the CONCACAF Nations League, Jamaica will host Canada in the opening leg of that quarter-final encounter on Friday at Independence Park.
The Reggae Boyz were unbeaten in their opening four matches at this tournament, topping Group B with 10 points, while the Canucks were one of the four pre-seeded teams in League A who qualified directly into the quarter-finals.
Match preview
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To no surprise, Jamaica advanced beyond the group phase of this competition, though the road to the quarter-finals was not as smooth for them as one might have expected.
Heimir Hallgrimsson's men took a while to get going in most of their group fixtures, as they were even or behind in three of four encounters at the half, scoring seven of their 10 goals in the final 45 minutes.
Their individual quality powered them through as they have now advanced beyond the group stage of a CONCACAF tournament in five of their last six opportunities, missing out at the 2022-23 Nations League by two points, playing to a draw in three of their four games that season after drawing first blood.
While they have come close to lifting a CONCACAF trophy, notably losing the Gold Cup final in 2015 and 2017, there is a belief that this generation is running out of time to win a continental tournament with most of their big players over 30 or in their late 20s.
Jamaica should be used to playing in knockout matches, having done so on five successive occasions at the Gold Cup, suffering only one quarter-final defeat (1-0 versus the USA in 2021) over that stretch.
In their 14 CONCACAF Nations League encounters played since this tournament debuted in 2019, the Reggae Boys have never lost, though they have yet to defeat an opponent from North America in this competition, playing Mexico to a 1-1 and 2-2 draw, respectively in 2022-23.
It has been well over a year since they were beaten at Independence Park, squandering a 1-0 lead against Mexico in January 2022, conceding twice in the final 10 minutes of that contest to lose 2-1.
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Canada suffered through a tough 2023 summer, losing the previous Nations League final to the United States (2-0) before crashing out against them on penalties in the last eight of the Gold Cup and losing their inspirational manager John Herdman shortly afterwards to Toronto.
The debut of Mauro Biello as interim coach did not go well, as the Canadians were beaten handily by Japan 4-1 last month, with the Canucks conceding eight efforts on target.
Since defeating Panama 2-0 in the semi-finals of the Nations League last June, Canada have captured just one of their previous six matches in all competitions, conceding 11 times over that span.
We saw our share of newcomers dawn the maple leaf at the Gold Cup this past summer, but Biello has gone with the A-Team for these upcoming knockout fixtures as Les Rouges seek their first quarter-final triumph at a CONCACAF tournament since 2021 (2-0 win over Costa Rica at the Gold Cup).
Although this team have not lost a match within 90 minutes when leading at the half since that epic collapse at the 2019 Gold Cup quarter-finals (3-2 defeat versus Haiti), the Canucks have only triumphed once in their previous three matches in which they were ahead in the second half or extra time of a game (4-2 win over Cuba at the 2023 Gold Cup).
Since defeating Japan 2-1 in a November 2022 friendly, their final game before appearing at the World Cup in Qatar, the Canadians are winless in their last six matches in all competitions when conceding the opening goal.
Les Rouges have gone unbeaten in three successive matches against the Reggae Boyz, without a goal conceded over that stretch, but they have not beaten them on Jamaican soil since April 1988 (4-0).
Team News
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From matchday three to four in the group phase, Hallgrimsson made wholesale changes to his Jamaican squad, with Greg Leigh, Di'Shon Bernard, Demarai Gray and Joel Latibeaudiere being the only players to maintain their place in the starting 11.
Michail Antonio will be the most notable absentee for the Reggae Boyz, with the West Ham striker beginning on the bench in the Hammers' previous two matches in all competitions, while Trivante Stewart is their most inexperienced player chosen for this encounter, with the Salernitana striker earning just two caps thus far with the national team.
Gray and Leon Bailey scored in their come-from-behind win over Haiti on matchday four, with Shamar Nicholson netting in between, his 11th for the senior squad putting him three behind Paul Hall for 10th all-time.
After missing the previous World Cup because of a broken leg, Maxime Crepeau has earned his first call-up for Canada in well over a year, while Luc de Fougerolles was the only one chosen to this squad without an international cap.
Samuel Piette can draw even with Lyndon Hooper for ninth in all-time caps as the CF Montreal man is currently on 68, Milan Borjan has 78 as a member of the Canucks, just three fewer than Dwayne De Rosario for fifth, while Sam Adekugbe (41), Alphonso Davies (42), Steven Vitoria (45) and Richie Laryea each need fewer than 10 appearances with the national team to reach 50.
Jonathan David has been in a slump for his club side Lille, without a goal since September 20 (2-0 win versus Olimpija at the Europa Conference League), but he is just three away from equalling the all-time goalscoring mark for Canada set by Cyle Larin at 22, while Junior Hoilett has 16 strikes, one fewer than Tosaint Ricketts in seventh, and Lucas Cavallini can reach 20, which would put him above Dale Mitchell and John Catliff and all alone in fourth.
Jamaica possible starting lineup:
Blake; Brown, Lowe, Bernard, Leigh; Lautibeaudiere, Johnson, Decordova-Reid; Bailey, Nicholson, D. Gray
Canada possible starting lineup:
Borjan; Johnston, Cornelius, Miller; Laryea, Eustaquio, Osorio, Davies; Kone; David, Larin
We say: Jamaica 1-1 Canada
The surfaces in Jamaica have been notoriously difficult to play on, which might be a break for both defensive units, who have each struggled.
These are two evenly matched sides, each with attacking quality, but we expect to see more of a cagey affair, and given the two-leg format neither will want to expend too much energy, as the conditions in Jamaica may be relatively humid.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
