MX23RW : Wednesday, December 18 22:57:18| >> :60:440:440:
Jamaica national football team
CONCACAF Nations League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg
Nov 18, 2023 at 3.30pm UK
Independence Park
Canada national football team

Jamaica
1 - 2
Canada

Nicholson (56')
Nicholson (40'), Leigh (69'), Bailey (77')
FT(HT: 0-1)
David (45+1'), Eustaquio (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's CONCACAF Nations League clash between Jamaica and Canada, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Jamaica

All competitions
CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Guatemala 0-0 Jamaica
Sunday, November 12 at 12am in International Friendlies

Canada

All competitions
Last Game: Japan 4-1 Canada
Friday, October 13 at 11.35am in International Friendlies

We said: Jamaica 1-1 Canada

 The surfaces in Jamaica have been notoriously difficult to play on, which might be a break for both defensive units, who have each struggled. These are two evenly matched sides, each with attacking quality, but we expect to see more of a cagey affair, and given the two-leg format neither will want to expend too much energy, as the conditions in Jamaica may be relatively humid. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jamaica win with a probability of 37.65%. A win for Canada had a probability of 33.96% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Jamaica win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.85%) and 2-0 (7.07%). The likeliest Canada win was 0-1 (11.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.

Result
JamaicaDrawCanada
37.65% (-0.273 -0.27) 28.38% (0.192 0.19) 33.96% (0.079000000000001 0.08)
Both teams to score 46.53% (-0.547 -0.55)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.25% (-0.682 -0.68)59.75% (0.681 0.68)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.95% (-0.526 -0.53)80.05% (0.52500000000001 0.53)
Jamaica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.41% (-0.503 -0.5)30.59% (0.502 0.5)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.18% (-0.601 -0.6)66.82% (0.60000000000001 0.6)
Canada Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.04% (-0.301 -0.3)32.96% (0.3 0.3)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.46% (-0.335 -0.34)69.54% (0.334 0.33)
Score Analysis
    Jamaica 37.65%
    Canada 33.95%
    Draw 28.38%
JamaicaDrawCanada
1-0 @ 11.94% (0.14 0.14)
2-1 @ 7.85% (-0.081 -0.08)
2-0 @ 7.07% (-0.015 -0.01)
3-1 @ 3.1% (-0.076 -0.08)
3-0 @ 2.79% (-0.045 -0.04)
3-2 @ 1.72% (-0.057 -0.06)
4-1 @ 0.92% (-0.036 -0.04)
Other @ 2.26%
Total : 37.65%
1-1 @ 13.25% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
0-0 @ 10.08% (0.255 0.26)
2-2 @ 4.36% (-0.081 -0.08)
Other @ 0.69%
Total : 28.38%
0-1 @ 11.18% (0.19 0.19)
1-2 @ 7.36% (-0.033 -0.03)
0-2 @ 6.21% (0.058 0.06)
1-3 @ 2.72% (-0.035 -0.03)
0-3 @ 2.3% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-3 @ 1.61% (-0.043 -0.04)
Other @ 2.58%
Total : 33.95%

How you voted: Jamaica vs Canada

Jamaica
29.2%
Draw
35.4%
Canada
35.4%
48
Head to Head
Mar 27, 2022 9.05pm
Third Round
Canada
4-0
Jamaica
Larin (13'), Buchanan (44'), Hoilett (83'), Mariappa (88' og.)

Brown (43')
> Preview
Oct 10, 2021 11pm
Third Round
Jamaica
0-0
Canada
Fisher (7'), Watson (16'), Roofe (47'), Gray (81')
Piette (21')
> Preview
Jul 11, 2015 11.30pm
Group Stage
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1-0
Canada
Austin (90')

Piette (27'), Edgar (59'), Ledgerwood (90')
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