CONCACAF Nations League | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg

Nov 22, 2023 at 12.30am UK

BMO Field

Canada
2 - 3
Jamaica

(agg: -)

Davies (25'), Kone (69')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Nicholson (62', 66'), Reid (78' pen.)
Nicholson (54'), Lowe (58'), Gray (83')
Gray (84')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's CONCACAF Nations League clash between Canada and Jamaica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Canada

All competitions

CONCACAF Nations League

Last Game: Jamaica 1-2 Canada
Saturday, November 18 at 3.30pm in CONCACAF Nations League

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Guatemala	3	2	7
2	Canada	3	2	5
3	Guadeloupe	3	2	4
4	Cuba	3	-6	0

Jamaica

All competitions

CONCACAF Nations League

Last Game: Jamaica 1-2 Canada
Saturday, November 18 at 3.30pm in CONCACAF Nations League

Current League A Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Jamaica	4	5	10
2	Honduras	4	7	7
3	Suriname	4	3	5
4	Cuba	4	-3	5
5	Haiti	4	-1	3
6	Grenada	4	-11	1

We said: Canada 2-0 Jamaica (Canada advance 4-1 on aggregate)

With Eustaquio in the midfield, the Canadians seem to be able to unlock opposing defences more efficiently, and facing an inconsistent backline like Jamaica, we believe Canada will be able to find a way through. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Canada win with a probability of 59.4%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Jamaica had a probability of 18.13%.

The most likely scoreline for a Canada win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.86%) and 2-1 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.69%), while for a Jamaica win it was 0-1 (5.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.

Result
Canada	Draw	Jamaica
59.4% ( -0.02)	22.48% ( 0.17)	18.13% ( -0.15)

Both teams to score 50.15% (

-0.82)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.81% (

-0.95)

48.19% (

0.95)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.66% (

-0.87)

70.35% (

0.88)

Canada Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.15% (

-0.33)

15.86% (

0.34)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.95% (

-0.61)

45.05% (

0.62)

Jamaica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.6% (

-0.73)

40.4% (

0.74)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.99% (

-0.67)

77.02% (

0.67)

Score Analysis

Canada 59.39%

Jamaica 18.13%

Draw 22.48%

Canada	Draw	Jamaica
1-0 @ 11.79% ( 0.33) 2-0 @ 10.86% ( 0.18) 2-1 @ 9.85% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 6.67% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 6.05% ( -0.09) 4-0 @ 3.07% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.78% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 2.74% ( -0.1) 4-2 @ 1.26% ( -0.06) 5-0 @ 1.13% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.03% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.17% Total : 59.39%	1-1 @ 10.69% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 6.41% ( 0.25) 2-2 @ 4.46% ( -0.11) Other @ 0.92% Total : 22.48%	0-1 @ 5.81% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 4.85% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 2.63% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.03% Total : 18.13%