Matchday 27 in the Bundesliga concludes with title-challenging Borussia Dortmund making the trip to FC Koln's RheinEnergieStadion on Sunday.
The visitors cut the gap at the summit to just four points following their late victory in midweek, whilst the hosts picked up a narrow derby win last weekend to keep their European hopes alive.
Match preview
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Despite Koln's struggles in front of goal continuing at the BayArena last weekend, Kingsley Schindler's goal midway through the second half was enough for them to pick up all three points at the home of their rivals Bayer Leverkusen.
The victory was only Koln's second in their last five outings, with their low tally of six goals from as many games being the primary reason for a slight dip in form by this season's exceptional standards.
An unexpected three points against their third-placed rivals lifted the Billy Goats up to seventh in the table ahead of the weekend, which maintained the five-point gap between themselves and the top six.
With that deficit potentially being cut to two should Steffen Baumgart's side manage to record another shock win on Sunday, as well as results elsewhere being required to go their way too, the usual strugglers remain in with a chance of achieving something outstanding come May.
A visit from second-placed Dortmund is far from ideal at this stage though, but despite losing to Hoffenheim last time out at the RheinEnergieStadion, Koln retain a solid record of just three defeats from 13 Bundesliga outings there this season.
Considering the quality of opposition facing them on Sunday, one goal may not be enough to register all three points this time around, so Baumgart's men may have to net on multiple occasions for the first time in seven matches to do so, and although he has failed to register a goal in his last three outings, top goalscorer Anthony Modeste will be key to their chances.
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As for the visitors, they kept their title hopes alive by picking up a narrow 1-0 victory in their rearranged fixture at Mainz 05 on Wednesday.
For the second successive game, Dortmund retained a solid back line and restricted their opponents to very little in front of their goal, which is something that has certainly been a rarity this season.
However, like their 1-0 triumph over struggling Arminia Bielefeld last weekend, BVB lacked much creativity in the final third and stumbled over the line.
Axel Witsel was the unlikely hero just three minutes from time against Mainz, and as mentioned above, his priceless goal cut the gap between Marco Rose's side and Bayern Munich to just four points at the Bundesliga summit.
Dortmund may have been unconvincing in recent weeks, but some unusual Bayern slip-ups on several occasions have allowed them to claw themselves back into the title race, with this campaign presenting them with one of their best opportunities to end the Bavarians' dominance over the past decade.
However, a tough trip to Koln's RheinEnergieStadion awaits on matchday 27, and with just five wins in their last 13 meetings with a side usually fighting it out at the bottom of the table, Dortmund may well have to grind out another hard-fought victory if they wish to maintain the pressure on the leaders.
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Team News
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Last weekend's match-winner Schindler will be unavailable for Koln on Sunday due to personal reasons, whilst captain Jonas Hector, and the influential Florian Kainz, will also miss out due to COVID-19.
Mark Uth looks set to return from the illness that saw him miss out on the derby victory, but Dejan Ljubicic and Tim Lemperle are the latest players to come down with the bug that see them labelled as doubts.
Uth is an option to deputise for Kainz, whilst Jannes Horn is likely to cover for the absent Hector at full-back.
As for Dortmund, Erling Braut Haaland could be in line to make his first start since January on Sunday, with the forward slowly making his way back from injury with two substitute appearances against Bielefeld and Mainz.
Raphael Guerreiro and Mats Hummels could well return from their COVID-19 absences, but captain Marco Reus remains a doubt due to a separate illness, and Mahmoud Dahoud is ruled out through suspension.
Steffen Tigges, Thomas Meunier, Mateu Morey and Marcel Schmelzer remain out for the season, and the quartet are definitely joined by Manuel Akanji, Dan-Axel Zagadou and Youssoufa Moukoko on the sidelines.
Rose is therefore left with very few options to rotate, but the potential returns of Guerreiro and Hummels, and the return to fitness of Haaland, will provide a much-needed boost to the visitors.
FC Koln possible starting lineup:
Schwabe; Schmitz, Kilian, Hubers, J Horn; Skhiri, Ozcan; Thielmann, Duda, Uth; Modeste
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Passlack, Can, Hummels, Guerreiro; Brandt, Witsel, Bellingham; Hazard, Haaland, Malen
We say: FC Koln 0-1 Borussia Dortmund
These are the types of fixtures that Dortmund usually slip up in, but after managing to grind out victories in their last two outings despite lacking defensive options, we can see them possessing the momentum and motivation to do so again on Sunday.
The hosts are a tough outfit to face and will be well drilled, so a tight affair looks likely and one goal may be enough to win it for either side once more.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 52.32%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 25.29% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.09%) and 0-2 (7.67%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 2-1 (6.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood.
