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La Liga | Gameweek 26
Mar 1, 2025 at 8pm UK
Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
Athletic Bilbao logo

Atletico
1 - 0
Athletic Bilbao

Alvarez (66')
Sorloth (57'), Barrios (68')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Ruiz de Galarreta (32'), Gorosabel (62'), Alvarez (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga clash between Atletico Madrid and Athletic Bilbao, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Barcelona 4-4 Atletico
Tuesday, February 25 at 8.30pm in Copa del Rey

We said: Atletico Madrid 1-0 Athletic Bilbao

This is such a difficult match to call, with Athletic on a long unbeaten run, but Atletico away is one of the toughest matches in the division, and we can see Simeone's side edging a close game to put an incredibly important three points on the board. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 49.23%. A draw has a probability of 26.4% and a win for Athletic Bilbao has a probability of 24.33%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (9.64%) and 2-1 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (12.43%), while for an Athletic Bilbao win it is 0-1 (8.49%).

Result
Atletico MadridDrawAthletic Bilbao
49.23% (0.020000000000003 0.02) 26.44% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01) 24.33% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Both teams to score 46.99% (0.012 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.28% (0.021000000000001 0.02)56.72% (-0.019999999999996 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.33% (0.016000000000002 0.02)77.67% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.89% (0.018000000000001 0.02)23.11% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.04% (0.026000000000003 0.03)56.96% (-0.023999999999994 -0.02)
Athletic Bilbao Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.12% (0.0019999999999953 0)38.88% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.39% (0.0010000000000012 0)75.61%
Score Analysis
    Atletico Madrid 49.22%
    Athletic Bilbao 24.33%
    Draw 26.44%
Atletico MadridDrawAthletic Bilbao
1-0 @ 13.16%
2-0 @ 9.64% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-1 @ 9.11% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 4.71% (0.0040000000000004 0)
3-1 @ 4.45% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 2.1% (0.0019999999999998 0)
4-0 @ 1.72% (0.002 0)
4-1 @ 1.63% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.7%
Total : 49.22%
1-1 @ 12.43%
0-0 @ 8.99% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.3% (0.00099999999999945 0)
Other @ 0.72%
Total : 26.44%
0-1 @ 8.49% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-2 @ 5.87% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-2 @ 4.01% (-0.0029999999999992 -0)
1-3 @ 1.85% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
2-3 @ 1.36% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 1.26% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 1.5%
Total : 24.33%

How you voted: Atletico vs Athletic Bilbao

Atletico Madrid
75.4%
Draw
21.3%
Athletic Bilbao
3.3%
122
Head to Head
Aug 31, 2024 6pm
Gameweek 4
Athletic Bilbao
0-1
Atletico

Williams (15'), Alvarez (34'), Sancet (35')
Correa (90+2')
Koke (85')
Apr 27, 2024 8pm
Gameweek 33
Atletico
3-1
Athletic Bilbao
De Paul (15'), Correa (52'), Simon (80' og.)
De Paul (5'), Hermoso (90+3'), Griezmann (90+4')
Williams (45')
Sancet (59'), Paredes (71')
Feb 29, 2024 8.30pm
Feb 7, 2024 8.30pm
Semi-Finals 1st Leg
Atletico
0-1
Athletic Bilbao

Mandava (23'), Simeone (24'), Simeone (65'), De Paul (83')
Berenguer (25' pen.)
Prados (37'), Vivian (45+2'), Gomez (71'), Ruiz de Galarreta (90+7')
Dec 16, 2023 3.15pm
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Barcelona26183571254657
2Real Madrid27176457263157
3Atletico MadridAtletico27168344182656
4Athletic Bilbao271310445242149
5Villarreal26128648361244
6Real BetisBetis2711883533241
7Mallorca27107102633-737
8Rayo Vallecano279992929036
9Celta Vigo27106114041-136
10Sevilla279993236-436
11Real Sociedad27104132328-534
12Getafe2789102322133
13Osasuna2671273237-533
14GironaGirona2695123439-532
15Espanyol2576122436-1227
16Valencia2769123045-1527
17Leganes2769122440-1627
18AlavesAlaves2768133040-1026
19Las PalmasLas Palmas2766153045-1524
20Real ValladolidValladolid2744191862-4416


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