La Liga | Gameweek 4
Aug 31, 2024 at 6pm UK
San Mames Barria
Athletic Bilbao0 - 1Atletico
We said: Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Atletico Madrid
This is a tough match to call, and we are finding it very hard to separate them. There has not actually been a draw between these two sides since September 2021, but we believe that a tight game on Saturday will end with the spoils being shared. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 38.76%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 34.1% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.27%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (10.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Athletic Bilbao | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
38.76% ( -0.44) | 27.15% ( 0.39) | 34.1% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 50.25% ( -1.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
