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Atletico Madrid logo
Copa del Rey | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg
Feb 7, 2024 at 8.30pm UK
Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
Athletic Bilbao logo

Atletico
0 - 1
Athletic Bilbao


Mandava (23'), Simeone (24'), Simeone (65'), De Paul (83')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Berenguer (25' pen.)
Prados (37'), Vivian (45+2'), Gomez (71'), Ruiz de Galarreta (90+7')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa del Rey clash between Atletico Madrid and Athletic Bilbao, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
Copa del Rey
Last Game: Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico
Sunday, February 4 at 8pm in La Liga

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions
Copa del Rey
Last Game: Athletic Bilbao 4-0 Mallorca
Friday, February 2 at 8pm in La Liga

We said: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Athletic Bilbao

 Atletico have gone over a year without losing a competitive game at the Metropolitano, and having won 11 of their last 13 home matches against Athletic, we think that the hosts will do enough to claim a narrow victory in the first leg of the semi-final tie. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 40.8%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 32.58% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (9.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.

Result
Atletico MadridDrawAthletic Bilbao
40.8% (-0.315 -0.31) 26.61% (0.114 0.11) 32.58% (0.20500000000001 0.21)
Both teams to score 51.57% (-0.29 -0.29)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.72% (-0.403 -0.4)53.28% (0.407 0.41)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.17% (-0.342 -0.34)74.83% (0.345 0.34)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.3% (-0.345 -0.34)25.71% (0.351 0.35)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.37% (-0.476 -0.48)60.63% (0.48 0.48)
Athletic Bilbao Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.41% (-0.064000000000007 -0.06)30.59% (0.068999999999999 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.18% (-0.077999999999996 -0.08)66.82% (0.082999999999998 0.08)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Madrid 40.8%
    Athletic Bilbao 32.59%
    Draw 26.61%
Atletico MadridDrawAthletic Bilbao
1-0 @ 10.68% (0.07 0.07)
2-1 @ 8.59% (-0.052000000000001 -0.05)
2-0 @ 7.26% (-0.03 -0.03)
3-1 @ 3.89% (-0.063 -0.06)
3-0 @ 3.29% (-0.047 -0.05)
3-2 @ 2.31% (-0.042 -0.04)
4-1 @ 1.32% (-0.035 -0.03)
4-0 @ 1.12% (-0.027 -0.03)
Other @ 2.35%
Total : 40.8%
1-1 @ 12.65% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
0-0 @ 7.86% (0.125 0.13)
2-2 @ 5.09% (-0.041 -0.04)
3-3 @ 0.91% (-0.018 -0.02)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 26.61%
0-1 @ 9.31% (0.131 0.13)
1-2 @ 7.49% (0.016 0.02)
0-2 @ 5.52% (0.067 0.07)
1-3 @ 2.96% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 2.18% (0.022 0.02)
2-3 @ 2.01% (-0.02 -0.02)
Other @ 3.11%
Total : 32.59%

How you voted: Atletico vs Athletic Bilbao

Atletico Madrid
82.7%
Draw
11.2%
Athletic Bilbao
6.1%
197
Head to Head
Dec 16, 2023 3.15pm
Gameweek 17
Athletic Bilbao
2-0
Atletico
Guruzeta (51'), Williams (64')

De Paul (49')
> Preview
Feb 19, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 22
Atletico
1-0
Athletic Bilbao
Griezmann (73')
> Preview
Oct 15, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 9
Athletic Bilbao
0-1
Atletico
Griezmann (47')
> Preview
Apr 30, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 34
Athletic Bilbao
2-0
Atletico
Hermoso (8' og.), Williams (56' pen.)
Garcia (25'), Williams (68'), Berenguer (90+1')

Hermoso (1'), Mandava (18'), Lodi (71')
> Preview
Jan 13, 2022 7pm
Semi-Finals
Atletico
1-2
Athletic Bilbao
Simeone (62' og.)
Vrsaljko (90+1')
Gimenez (90+3')
Alvarez (77'), Williams (81')
Martinez (83'), Vesga (90'), Williams (90+1')
> Preview
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