Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 46.18%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 29.32% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.3%) and 2-0 (7.51%). The likeliest Alaves win was 1-2 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
Result | ||
Villarreal | Draw | Alaves |
46.18% ( 0.37) | 24.5% ( -0.16) | 29.32% ( -0.22) |
Both teams to score 56.93% ( 0.4) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.37% ( 0.59) | 45.62% ( -0.59) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.05% ( 0.56) | 67.95% ( -0.56) |
Villarreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.14% ( 0.4) | 19.86% ( -0.4) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.04% ( 0.64) | 51.96% ( -0.64) |
Alaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.04% ( 0.15) | 28.96% ( -0.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.15% ( 0.18) | 64.85% ( -0.18) |
Score Analysis |
Villarreal | Draw | Alaves |
2-1 @ 9.31% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 9.3% ( -0.12) 2-0 @ 7.51% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.02% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 4.05% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 3.11% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 2.03% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 1.64% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.26% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.96% Total : 46.18% | 1-1 @ 11.52% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 5.77% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 5.75% ( -0.15) 3-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.5% | 1-2 @ 7.14% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 7.13% ( -0.15) 0-2 @ 4.42% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 2.95% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.38% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 0.91% ( 0) Other @ 2.56% Total : 29.32% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Barcelona | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 42 | 14 | 28 | 34 |
2 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 13 | 29 |
3 | Real Madrid | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 27 |
4 | Villarreal | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 24 |
5 | GironaGirona | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 21 |
6 | Mallorca | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 21 |
7 | Osasuna | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 21 |
8 | Athletic Bilbao | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 20 |
9 | Real BetisBetis | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 20 |
10 | Real Sociedad | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 18 |
11 | Celta Vigo | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 18 |
12 | Rayo Vallecano | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 16 |
13 | Sevilla | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 15 |
14 | Leganes | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 14 |
15 | Getafe | 14 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 13 |
16 | AlavesAlaves | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 13 |
17 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 12 |
18 | Valencia | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 10 |
19 | Espanyol | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 26 | -14 | 10 |
20 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 27 | -17 | 9 |
> La Liga Full Table |