Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 47%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 29.15% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.6%) and 0-2 (7.28%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 2-1 (7.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.
Result | ||
Villarreal | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
29.15% ( -0.66) | 23.84% ( -0.02) | 47% ( 0.68) |
Both teams to score 59.08% ( -0.39) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.25% ( -0.31) | 42.75% ( 0.31) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.85% ( -0.31) | 65.15% ( 0.31) |
Villarreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.38% ( -0.61) | 27.62% ( 0.6) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.85% ( -0.78) | 63.15% ( 0.78) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.62% ( 0.15) | 18.38% ( -0.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.49% ( 0.25) | 49.51% ( -0.25) |
Score Analysis |
Villarreal | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
2-1 @ 7.12% ( -0.11) 1-0 @ 6.53% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 4.2% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 3.05% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 2.59% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 1.8% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 0.98% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.88% Total : 29.15% | 1-1 @ 11.06% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.03% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 5.07% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.22% Total : 23.84% | 1-2 @ 9.37% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 8.6% ( 0.16) 0-2 @ 7.28% ( 0.17) 1-3 @ 5.29% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 4.11% ( 0.11) 2-3 @ 3.41% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 2.24% ( 0.04) 0-4 @ 1.74% ( 0.06) 2-4 @ 1.44% ( -0) Other @ 3.52% Total : 47% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Barcelona | 13 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 12 | 28 | 33 |
2 | Real Madrid | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 27 |
3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 26 |
4 | Villarreal | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 24 |
5 | Osasuna | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 21 |
6 | Athletic Bilbao | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 20 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 20 |
8 | Real Sociedad | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 18 |
9 | Mallorca | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 18 |
10 | GironaGirona | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 18 |
11 | Celta Vigo | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 17 |
12 | Rayo Vallecano | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 16 |
13 | Sevilla | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 15 |
14 | Leganes | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 14 |
15 | AlavesAlaves | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 13 |
16 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 12 |
17 | Getafe | 13 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
18 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 10 |
19 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 9 |
20 | Valencia | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 7 |
> La Liga Full Table |