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League One
Carlisle United
League One | Gameweek 42
Apr 1, 2024 at 3pm UK
Brunton Park
Lincoln City

Carlisle
1 - 3
Lincoln

Lavelle (80')
Barclay (85'), Emmanuel (90+2')
FT(HT: 0-1)
House (10'), Taylor (53'), Bishop (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's League One clash between Carlisle United and Lincoln City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last Game: Peterborough 1-3 Carlisle
Friday, March 29 at 3pm in League One

Lincoln City

All competitions
Last Game: Lincoln 1-0 Leyton Orient
Friday, March 29 at 3pm in League One

We said: Carlisle United 1-3 Lincoln City

 Carlisle would have taken confidence from Friday's away performance, but we think that they will struggle to produce another winning display on Monday. With Lincoln proving to be a tough team to stop, we believe that the visitors will have enough firepower to collect all three points at Brunton Park. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lincoln City win with a probability of 53.64%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Carlisle United had a probability of 22.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lincoln City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.72%) and 0-2 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.39%), while for a Carlisle United win it was 1-0 (6.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-3 win for Lincoln City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Lincoln City.

Result
Carlisle UnitedDrawLincoln City
22.4% (0.056000000000001 0.06) 23.96% (0.030999999999999 0.03) 53.64% (-0.089999999999996 -0.09)
Both teams to score 52.13% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.12% (-0.070999999999998 -0.07)48.87% (0.067999999999998 0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.03% (-0.065000000000001 -0.07)70.96% (0.059999999999988 0.06)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.69% (0.012 0.01)36.31% (-0.016000000000005 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.9% (0.012 0.01)73.09% (-0.016999999999996 -0.02)
Lincoln City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.85% (-0.063000000000002 -0.06)18.14% (0.059999999999999 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.89% (-0.104 -0.1)49.11% (0.101 0.1)
Score Analysis
    Carlisle United 22.4%
    Lincoln City 53.64%
    Draw 23.96%
Carlisle UnitedDrawLincoln City
1-0 @ 6.67% (0.021 0.02)
2-1 @ 5.77% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-0 @ 3.38% (0.012 0.01)
3-1 @ 1.95% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.66%
3-0 @ 1.14% (0.0049999999999999 0)
Other @ 1.82%
Total : 22.4%
1-1 @ 11.39% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
0-0 @ 6.59% (0.019 0.02)
2-2 @ 4.93% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-3 @ 0.95% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 23.96%
0-1 @ 11.24% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-2 @ 9.72% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-2 @ 9.6% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
1-3 @ 5.53% (-0.013 -0.01)
0-3 @ 5.46% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.8% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
1-4 @ 2.36% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-4 @ 2.33% (-0.011 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.2% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 3.4%
Total : 53.64%

How you voted: Carlisle vs Lincoln

Carlisle United
13.8%
Draw
10.3%
Lincoln City
75.9%
29
Head to Head
Sep 16, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 8
Lincoln
1-1
Carlisle
Hamilton (49')
Duffy (76')
Plange (19')
Plange (59'), Garner (72'), Mellish (76'), Lavelle (83'), Moxon (89')
Nov 30, 2021 7pm
Second Round
Carlisle
1-1
Lincoln
 Carlisle win 4-3 on penalties
Armer (69')
Mellish (55'), Guy (90+2')
Maguire (45')
Adelakun (55'), Maguire (85'), McGrandles (90+1')
Apr 19, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 43
Carlisle
1-0
Lincoln
Jones (76')
Gerrard (21'), Thomas (67'), Kennedy (83'), Liddle (96')

Shackell (26'), Bolger (34'), Bostwick (87')
Shackell (30')
Dec 1, 2018 3pm
Second Round
Lincoln
2-0
Carlisle
Rhead (1'), Akinde (86')
Oct 23, 2018 7.45pm
Gameweek 15
Lincoln
2-2
Carlisle
O'Connor (13'), Andrade (44')
Nadesan (6', 27')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham8710178922
2Wrexham9522147717
3Mansfield TownMansfield85211511417
4Stockport CountyStockport8431137615
5Lincoln CityLincoln8431137615
6Blackpool94321714315
7Barnsley94321513215
8Wycombe WanderersWycombe84221613314
9Stevenage942375214
10Exeter CityExeter841396313
11Bolton WanderersBolton84131313013
12Reading84131212013
13Charlton AthleticCharlton941499013
14Wigan AthleticWigan933395412
15Huddersfield TownHuddersfield94051211112
16Peterborough UnitedPeterborough93241417-311
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham9243710-310
18Bristol Rovers93151015-510
19Northampton TownNorthampton82241013-38
20Leyton Orient9225912-38
21Crawley TownCrawley8215512-77
22Burton Albion8044916-74
23Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury9117615-94
24Cambridge UnitedCambridge8017616-101
> League One Full Table


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